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First, the bad news for Wolves fans.
The team that has been bottom of the Premier League after 15 games has been relegated in each of the past seven seasons.
On the plus side, at the same point last term, only goal difference was keeping Newcastle off the foot of the table and – thanks to Saudi investment and Eddie Howe – they survived. And, the year after Leicester became the last team to escape from bottom spot after 15 games, they won the title.
But new manager Julen Lopetegui is not wrong when he says Wolves are about to play “a lot of finals”.
Chinese owners Fosun are aware of the scale of the task. It is understood they are prepared to back Lopetegui with up to six new signings in the January transfer window, starting with Atletico Madrid’s Brazilian forward Matheus Cunha, but not all of whom, it must be stressed, are going to be starters.
Around Molineux, a sense of optimism is being fused with a steely determination as Wolves prepare for the resumption of their Premier League campaign at Everton on Monday, 26 December.
The decline
Results-wise, it is easy to find the start of Wolves’ dramatic decline. At half-time of their home game with Leeds on 18 March, they were in command, leading 2-0 and set to move into sixth spot, two points off the top four.
Raul Jimenez’s dismissal seven minutes after the break was the trigger for a thrilling Leeds comeback, sealed by Luke Ayling in injury-time. From that point, across two seasons, Wolves have won two out of 16 Premier League matches, amassed 11 points and failed to score on eight occasions.
Popular skipper Conor Coady was deemed surplus to requirements and sent out on loan to Everton. Wolves chairman Jeff Shi made concessions to allow the deal to go through which were generous but done out of respect to a player who had been such a fine servant and had a World Cup place to earn.
Other issues were becoming apparent behind the scenes. Under former boss Nuno Espirito Santo, the principle of a ‘lunch hour’ had been created, where players and matchday staff sat together in the canteen in a lively atmosphere. Sources say it was one of the fundamentals to having such a strong dressing room spirit during seasons when Wolves were promoted and twice finished seventh in the top flight. Bruno Lage scrapped the policy when he replaced Nuno in 2021.
Medical tests were skipped. Standards, it was felt, were slipping.
Lage cannot take all the blame but as the manager, he is where the buck stopped. The Portuguese championed the defensive shift from three at the back to two which led to Coady’s exit. He was backed in the transfer market but when results failed to improve, he had no credit in the bank to get him through the storm.
Wolves and Lopetegui has been six years in making
Lopetegui first spoke to Wolves about becoming their manager in 2016. The intention was he would try guide the Black Country club back into the elite of the English game.
It didn’t happen because Lopetegui was offered the Spain job instead. The move worked out for both parties. Lopetegui got Spain to the World Cup. After a false start under Walter Zenga and Paul Lambert, Nuno got Wolves into the Premier League.
But a relationship had been forged. When Lage was sacked, Lopetegui, under pressure after a previously successful stint with Sevilla, was Wolves’ first choice to come in. After another false start, due to the ill health of Lopetegui’s father and a very public rejection by then QPR boss Michael Beale, the Spaniard finally said yes.
Wolves insiders have been impressed.
Demands and accountability have been raised. A code of conduct has been introduced. Nuno’s ‘lunch hour’ has returned. The key is for a talented group of players to look less like a bunch of individuals when they are on the pitch.
Lopetegui has a clear idea of how the game should be played and will not deviate from that.
“A lot of journalists and even the players think the system is key,” he said. “But the system can be flexible. You can have five at the back, four or three. You can do high press or go out from the keeper and build up.
“The style is more important than the system and we won’t change our way.”
Wolves must score more goals
Wolves and Lopetegui are coy about the future should they end up back in the Championship. Both say they prefer to be positive and concentrate on survival.
Yet, for financial and status reasons, it is hard to see the union being maintained in the second tier.
Certainly, Fosun appear willing to buck the general trend of Chinese ownership by spending to give Wolves the best chance of avoiding having to face such tricky situations.
Although Lopetegui feels there are plenty of areas for improvement, one stands out. Wolves struggle to score goals.
Their Premier League tally of eight is three fewer than Nottingham Forest and Everton, the clubs with the next worst record.
Last season, Jimenez and Daniel Podence finished the campaign as Wolves’ joint highest scorers, with six. The year before, Pedro Neto and Ruben Neves were level on five.
These four totals combined are less than the 27 Jimenez scored in 2019-20, when Wolves reached the Europa League quarter-finals, where, ironically, they were beaten by Lopetegui’s Sevilla, who went on to win the competition.
Wolves are yet to score a Premier League goal after the 56th minute this season.
It is a damning statistic that hints at fitness issues in addition to a difficulty in finding the net.
Diego Costa’s search for a first Wolves goal continued against League Two Gillingham in the EFL Cup. Jimenez did score from the penalty spot but the Mexican’s future is open to question.
Cunha’s arrival addresses the problem but the Brazilian cannot make the difference on his own. Lopetegui knows there must be a general improvement at the top end of the pitch for Wolves to turn their campaign around.
In his own words, Goodison Park is the venue for the first of 23 finals. Even if they win, Wolves will remain in the bottom three. The task is not easy and Lopetegui’s reputation is on the line.
Wolves trust the new man will get it right. Their short-term future depends on it.
