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In this week’s Fantasy 606 podcast, we got into a discussion on how to make up ground on your rivals by finding those differential picks and going against the most highly-owned players in the game.
Now, I think with some players you just have to accept you really have to own them and there is no point in trying to take them on – Kieran Trippier and Erling Haaland are two that immediately spring to mind.
But there are others – like Joao Cancelo, Gabriel Martinelli and Darwin Nunez – who are in a lot of FPL teams who may be worth gambling against.
Cancelo was left out of Manchester City’s starting line-up against Leeds this week and even though you’d expect him to start the majority of their league games going forward, you could opt for another member of that City defence instead and get Andy Robertson in as your premium defender.
He’s scored 26 points in his last four games, despite Liverpool not keeping a clean sheet in any of them, thanks to four assists and seven bonus points. He’s currently owned by just 5.7% of managers in the game.
There are plenty of midfield options if you want to go against Martinelli.
Mason Mount and Dejan Kulusevski are both a little more expensive – £7.5m and £8m respectively – but Mount is only 7.1% owned and Kulusevski 5.5% owned, compared to the Arsenal man who is in almost half the teams in the game.
Martinelli’s team-mate Martin Odegaard comes in at a similar price to him; he has a 17.4% ownership and looks in majestic form at the moment having returned three double-digit hauls in his last four games.
And as for a differential selection up front to go against the likes of Harry Kane and Darwin Nunez, then I have to defer to our guest on the Fantasy 606 podcast this week, FPL expert Gianni Buttice, who selected Kai Havertz for gameweek 17 and picked up 12 points thanks to his goal and assist in Chelsea’s 2-0 win against Bournemouth.
Havertz’s ownership is just 3.9% and he faces Nottingham Forest in gameweek 18 followed by a double gameweek 19 with fixtures at home to Manchester City and away to Fulham.
Buttice’s dilemma now though is very similar to that of a lot of managers in the game: does he bring Aleksandar Mitrovic in at the expense of either Havertz or Darwin Nunez?
Almost a million managers sold Mitrovic ahead of gameweek 17 when Marco Silva gave a rather gloomy outlook on the chances of his Serbian centre-forward playing against Crystal Palace. He then proceeded to rack up 15 points with a goal and two assists in the game.
Mitrovic now faces Southampton at Craven Cottage in gameweek 18 and then has a double gameweek 19 with a trip to Leicester and a home fixture against Chelsea.
That makes him a decent captaincy option in gameweek 19 – but he is just one yellow card away from a suspension? And you’re never quite sure if that foot injury is going to flare up again.
I’m a Darwin Nunez owner who was as frustrated as anyone by the chances that went begging at Villa Park on Boxing Day but I’ve got a feeling there’s a big haul just around the corner for him, so I certainly don’t want to sell him with games against Leicester and Brentford coming up.
That leaves me a dilemma over whether to bring Mitrovic in for Eddie Nketiah – the Arsenal man doesn’t have a double gameweek and faces Newcastle, Tottenham and Manchester United in his next three matches, so it’s just whether to take the risk on potential suspension or injury with Mitrovic. I am tempted, although Nketiah is one of my rare differentials at just 2.2% ownership.
It’s a good idea though to bank a transfer if you can in gameweek 18 to leave you two free transfers going into gameweek 19 when Chelsea and Fulham have that double gameweek. That might mean having to leave an injured Reece James on your bench for a week but hopefully you’ve got a decent defender who can come in and cover him.
In terms of replacements for James, it will obviously depend on your budget and how your squad is set up but Luke Shaw isn’t a bad shout at £4.8m, nor is Aaron Cresswell at the same price or Ivan Perisic at £5.5m. You could always double up on the Newcastle defence if you’ve got room and Sven Botman is great value at £4.4m.
The next two deadlines are at slightly unusual times so make sure you don’t miss them – 18:15 GMT on Friday for gameweek 18 and 16:00 GMT on Monday for gameweek 19.
Alistair Bruce-Ball presents the Fantasy 606 podcast alongside former Premier League winner Chris Sutton and Statman Dave. The latest episode previewing gameweeks 18 & 19 is available on the BBC Sounds App.
