Premier League title race: Who has the better run-in?

League leaders Arsenal’s 2-2 draw at Liverpool on Sunday has seemingly opened the door for reigning champions Manchester City in what is becoming a dramatic title race.

City also have a superior goal difference – currently 48 to Arsenal’s 43 – which could became a factor.

While Arsenal have just eight fixtures remaining, City are still in the hunt for the FA Cup and Champions League, and could have a packed schedule between now and the end of the season.

According to data company Nielsen’s Gracenote’s simulations, City are now favourites with a 56% chance of lifting the trophy, while Arsenal’s chances are 44%.

Arsenal have not beaten City in the Premier League since December 2015 and their last top-flight win at the Etihad was in January 2015.

The sides have already met twice this season, with City winning 1-0 in the FA Cup in January and 3-1 in the league in February.

But Arsenal may have history on their side.

According to Opta, 13 sides in the top-flight have had 73 or more points after 30 games (when adapted to 3 points for a win) and only two of these have failed to go on and win the title – Manchester United in 2011-12 and Liverpool in 2018-19. However, less reassuringly for Arsenal fans, it was City who ultimately finished champions on both those occasions.

Premier League run-in