FIFA World Cup 2026 draw state of play after qualifying, Australia’s Socceroos in Pot 2 or Pot 3, rule change for playoff teams, seeding, when is the World Cup draw AEDT

Australia’s hopes of an easier 2026 World Cup group hang on whether FIFA decides to make a strange rule change just days before the draw.

So far 42 teams have officially qualified for the 48-team tournament, with only Europe’s playoffs and the second-chance Interconfederation Play-Off still to be played in March 2026.

But before that, the official group draw will be held on December 5 (US time) in Washington DC – for Aussie readers, the draw begins at 4am AEDT on December 6, and you’ll be able to follow live coverage on Foxsports.com.au.

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The 12 tournament groups of four nations each will be drawn from four pots based on the official FIFA rankings. Traditionally, the playoff teams have been placed in the lowest-ranked fourth pot – regardless of where the nation actually ranks – as a punishment for not directly qualifying.

But nerdy social media accounts which follow World Cup qualifying closely believe FIFA is considering changing the rules so that playoff teams are seeded based on the highest-ranked team in each pathway.

For example, one of Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland will qualify for the World Cup out of a mini four-team bracket. This pathway would thus be seeded in Pot 2 because the highest-ranked team in it, Italy, would be in Pot 2 if they qualified directly.

The change has at least some merit, since the European qualifiers are likely to be stronger teams than a Pot 4 placement suggests. But because the pot placement is tied to the highest-seeded team and not whoever actually qualifies, it means for example Northern Ireland – ranked 69th in the world – would count as a Pot 2 team if they qualified from that pathway.

BBC reporter Dale Johnson said on social media this rule change would not be made, but it is very unusual that FIFA has not yet confirmed the pots despite the final rankings having been confirmed. Instead FIFA’s official website says further details of the draw including procedures will be confirmed “soon”.

This matters enormously for Australia because they, confusingly along with Austria, are on the cusp between Pots 2 and 3.

If the normal rules are followed, the Socceroos will be placed in Pot 2. But if the change is made for playoff team seeding, they would drop into Pot 3 and have to play a tougher Pot 2 team in the group stage.

Technically, this change could give the Socceroos an easier group, because there would not be dangerous European playoff teams lurking in Pot 4.

The worst possible group Australia could draw would be in the scenario where all playoff teams are placed in Pot 4, and Australia then draws the likes of Italy or Denmark alongside a top team like Spain and one of the highest-ranked Pot 3 nations like Norway, Panama or Egypt.

But when playing the averages, the rule change would make the Socceroos’ task harder, because of the difference between the Pot 2 teams (some of whom are good enough to make deep runs at the World Cup) and Pot 3 teams (who almost certainly cannot).

While the Socceroos would still be favoured to make it out of the groups, because eight of the 12 third-place teams will advance into the Round of 32, a tough draw could make that much more difficult.

Let’s take a look at what the two different sets of World Cup pots could look like, and who the Socceroos could face in either scenario.

WORLD CUP POTS (If teams are seeded normally)

Pot 1: USA (host), Mexico (host), Canada (host), Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Australia

Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan*, Qatar*, Saudi Arabia*, South Africa

Pot 4: Jordan*, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, UEFA Playoff Team 1 (Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland), UEFA Playoff Team 2 (Denmark, Czechia, Ireland or North Macedonia), UEFA Playoff Team 3 (Turkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo or Romania), UEFA Playoff Team 4 (Ukraine, Poland, Albania or Sweden), IC Playoff Team 1 (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica), IC Playoff Team 2 (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname)

* = Australia cannot be drawn against this team due to confederation restrictions

In this scenario, the only real limitations on the Socceroos’ draw would be regarding who they can play from Pot 3.

With quite a few Asian rivals in both Pots 2 and 3, who they cannot share a group with, the Socceroos’ potential Pot 3 opponents would be Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast and South Africa.

This wouldn’t necessarily guarantee them an easy game – in particular, Erling Haaland’s Norway looked quite dangerous in UEFA qualifying.

But it would almost certainly give them an easier group opponent than a Pot 2 team like Colombia, who the Socceroos were recently outclassed by, or recent semi-finalists Croatia and Morocco.

The Socceroos could be drawn against any Pot 1 team but would prefer to play one of the host nations, who are ranked 14th (USA), 15th (Mexico) and 27th (Canada) respectively.

The Socceroos’ easiest potential group (based on world rankings): Canada (ranked No.27), Australia (No.26), South Africa (No.61), New Zealand (No.86)

OR if including lowest-ranked possible playoff qualifiers: Canada (ranked No.27), Australia (No.26), South Africa (No.61), New Caledonia (No.149, IC playoff qualifier)

The Socceroos’ hardest potential group (based on world rankings): Spain (No.1), Australia (No.26), Panama (No.30), Italy (No.12, playoff qualifier)

Note: It’s unclear whether two European nations and a UEFA qualifier could be drawn into the same group. We have assumed they cannot, but if they can, replace Panama with Norway (No.29).

WORLD CUP POTS (If playoff teams are seeded by highest-ranked team in each path)

Pot 1: USA (host), Mexico (host), Canada (host), Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, UEFA Playoff Team 1 (Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland), Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan*, Senegal, Iran*, UEFA Playoff Team 2 (Denmark, Czechia, Ireland or North Macedonia), South Korea*, Ecuador

Pot 3: Austria, UEFA Playoff Team 3 (Turkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo or Romania), Australia, UEFA Playoff Team 4 (Ukraine, Poland, Albania or Sweden), Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast

Pot 4: Uzbekistan*, Qatar*, IC Playoff Team 1 (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica), IC Playoff Team 2 (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname), Saudi Arabia*, South Africa, Jordan*, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand

* = Australia cannot be drawn against this team due to confederation restrictions

In this scenario, Australia’s options for Pot 2 and Pot 4 opponents would be quite limited, because they cannot be drawn against a fellow Asian confederation team.

The Socceroos’ only potential Pot 2 opponents would be Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Senegal, Ecuador or one of two UEFA playoff teams – based on seeding, most likely to be Italy or Denmark. (Yep, Denmark again…)

But the benefit of higher-ranked playoff teams being placed in higher pots, along with the top teams in Pot 4 being from Asia, would be that the Socceroos would be guaranteed what should be an easy opponent from that grouping.

The Socceroos’ only potential Pot 4 opponents would be South Africa, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or one of the two Interconfederation Playoff teams – based on seeding, most likely to be DR Congo or Graham Arnold’s Iraq.

The Socceroos could be drawn against any Pot 1 team but would prefer to play one of the host nations, who are ranked 14th (USA), 15th (Mexico) and 27th (Canada) respectively.

The Socceroos’ easiest potential group (based on world rankings): Canada (ranked No.27), Ecuador (No.23), Australia (No.26), New Zealand (No.86)

OR if including lowest-ranked possible playoff qualifiers: Canada (ranked No.27), Northern Ireland (No.69, UEFA playoff qualifier), Australia (No.26), New Caledonia (No.149, IC playoff qualifier)

The Socceroos’ hardest potential group (based on world rankings): Spain (No.1), Croatia (No.10), Australia (No.26), DR Congo (No.56, IC playoff qualifier)