The Socceroos have officially been handed a World Cup boost, with the opportunity to land an easier group at the 2026 tournament.
FIFA announced on Wednesday morning the pots for next week’s draw, with Australia sneaking into Pot 2 after all qualifier teams were pushed into the lowest-ranked Pot 4.
The pots are necessary to divide the 48 teams up, based on their world ranking, with the three hosts (Canada, Mexico and USA) plus the nine top-ranked nations in Pot 1 and so on.
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Thanks to Italy, Denmark and Turkiye failing to win their European qualifying groups, the Socceroos are the final team in Pot 2, which means they should only draw one higher-ranked nation in their group.
With the top two teams in each group plus the eight best third-placers advancing into the knockout stage at the expanded 2026 World Cup, this will give the Socceroos a great chance of escaping their group for the second straight tournament.
There is one caveat on that, though. While it’s generally a good thing the Socceroos are in Pot 2, it does now leave the European playoff teams as dangerous Pot 4 floaters.
With 16 European teams in the tournament and 12 groups, every group must have at least one European team and four will have two of them. The draw will otherwise keep teams from the same confederation away from each other – ie, Australia can’t be in a group with fellow Asian nations like Japan.
So while at one end of the spectrum, Australia could play Haiti (ranked No.84 in the world) or New Zealand (No.86) in the group stage, they could also end up copping Italy (No.12) or Denmark (No.21) as the same Pot 4 ‘lowest-ranked’ side.
It’s a risk. But it’s better than the alternative of being guaranteed a tough run.
Below, we explore the possible group stage draw for Australia, including the best and worst-case scenarios – and what to watch for when the draw is held on Saturday December 6 from 4am AEDT (follow it live on Foxsports.com.au).
CONFIRMED 2026 FIFA WORLD CUP POTS
Pot 1: Canada, Mexico, USA, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany
Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Australia
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa
Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, UEFA Playoff Team 1 (Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland), UEFA Playoff Team 2 (Denmark, Czechia, Ireland or North Macedonia), UEFA Playoff Team 3 (Turkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo or Romania), UEFA Playoff Team 4 (Ukraine, Poland, Albania or Sweden), IC Playoff Team 1 (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica), IC Playoff Team 2 (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname)
AUSTRALIA’S POTENTIAL WORLD CUP GROUP OPPONENTS
Pot 1: Canada, Mexico, USA, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire, South Africa
Pot 4: Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, UEFA Playoff Team 1 (Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland), UEFA Playoff Team 2 (Denmark, Czechia, Ireland or North Macedonia), UEFA Playoff Team 3 (Turkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo or Romania), UEFA Playoff Team 4 (Ukraine, Poland, Albania or Sweden), IC Playoff Team 1 (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica)
Rules and restrictions
– Australia cannot be grouped with a team from AFC (Asia), which eliminates three Pot 3 options (Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) and two Pot 4 options (Jordan, IC Playoff Team 2 which is either Bolivia, Suriname or Iraq);
– Australia must be in a group with either 1 or 2 UEFA (Europe) teams;
– The pots will be drawn in sequential order starting with Pot 1. This will force a Pot 4 UEFA team to be placed in Australia’s group if none are drawn from Pots 1 or 3;
– Teams are placed in specific group positions (ie A1, A2, A3 or A4) based on a predetermined formula, which will dictate the match schedule;
– Based on this formula, if Australia is drawn into Mexico, Canada or USA’s group, we know they will not play them on the first matchday. Instead they will play their Pot 4 opponent first (if placed in Mexico or USA’s group) or their Pot 3 opponent first (if placed in Canada’s group);
– Based on this formula, if Australia is not drawn into a host’s group, they are most likely to play their Pot 1 opponent first (44.4% chance), with a 33.3% chance to play their Pot 3 opponent first, and a 22.2% chance to play their Pot 4 opponent first;
– The match schedule will be revealed 24 hours after the draw.
EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL SOCCEROOS 2026 WORLD CUP GROUPS
Best-case scenario
Canada, Australia, Scotland, New Zealand
Worst-case scenario
Argentina, Australia, Norway, Italy
With average luck
England, Australia, Paraguay, Ghana
‘Oh no, not again!’
France, Australia, Tunisia, Denmark
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In five of the Socceroos’ six World Cup appearances, they’ve been drawn in a group with two European teams – most notably with France and Denmark the last two tournaments.
Only in 2006 was that not the case, when Australia shared a group with Brazil, Croatia and Japan; that’s no longer possible because Australia and Japan now share a confederation.
But in previous World Cups, the pots have been determined in ways which made these two UEFA team groups more likely for the Socceroos – either by determining the pots by confederation (with UEFA teams split across the top-ranked-teams pot, and the rest-of-UEFA pot), or because Australia was in lowly Pot 4 (where very few UEFA teams resided).
The Socceroos have never shared a pot with so many UEFA teams before – being in Pot 2 means they cannot draw Croatia, Switzerland or Austria.
This time, there is a 58.3% chance Australia draws a UEFA team out of Pot 1. (All percentages based on pre-draw chances.)
And this is probably what they want to have happen, because it opens up the options in Pot 4.
If Australia were to draw a non-UEFA team from Pot 1 (41.7% chance – Canada, Mexico, USA, Argentina or Brazil), and a non-UEFA team from Pot 3 (77.7% chance – Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Paraguay, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire, South Africa), then they would be forced to draw a UEFA team from Pot 4 to fulfil the requirement of at least one UEFA team in each group.
Alternatively, should Australia draw a UEFA team from Pot 1 (Spain, France, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany), they would not be required to draw another. They would have nine options from Pot 3 (the teams listed above plus Norway and Scotland), and 10 options from Pot 4 (they cannot play Jordan, or the Interconfederation Playoff 2 path due to Iraq’s presence).
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The clearest path to advancing out of the group stage will be having one of the Pot 4 minnows in your group – Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or the Interconfederation Playoff 1 team (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica).
So should Australia draw a Pot 1 UEFA team, they’ll have at worst a 40% chance of drawing a Pot 4 UEFA team, and possibly a 0% chance.
If Australia does draw a Pot 1 non-UEFA team, at least if it’s one of the hosts (Mexico, Canada, USA) the slightly easier match-up will compensate for the more likely drawing of a Pot 4 UEFA team.
The absolute worst-case scenario would therefore be drawing Argentina or Brazil out of Pot 1, as it opens up a potential Group of Death also including a top Pot 3 team (ie Norway) and a UEFA Pot 4 team (ie Italy or Denmark).
They could still get unlucky and draw a strong UEFA Pot 1 team (ie Spain or France) plus a UEFA Pot 4 team (ie Italy or Denmark) but this is simply less likely than getting a Pot 4 minnow instead.
So, yes, there’s a chance Australia draws France (Pot 1), Tunisia (Pot 3) and Denmark (Pot 4) again. But it would be incredibly unfortunate.
The best-case scenario would be Australia drawing Canada (Pot 1), then Scotland (Pot 3) as their required UEFA team, and then any Pot 4 minnow (ie New Zealand).
Either way let’s just enjoy the fact that, for the first time in their history, the Socceroos could draw a minnow in their group.
Since FIFA moved to purely ranking-based pots for the 2018 event, the Socceroos have only been in the lowest-ranked Pot 4; and only once historically (2010) would they have been in Pot 3. Typically Australia was the minnow other teams were happy to draw.
Were this a 32-team World Cup, the Socceroos likely would’ve made it into Pot 3, which shows the progress they’ve made since and including the 2022 tournament.
Of course, they were a Pot 4 qualifier team in Qatar, and made it out of the group. So you can always play your way out of a tough draw if you’re good enough.
AUSTRALIA’S PAST WORLD CUP GROUP DRAWS
2022: France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia
Pot 4 as a playoff qualifier
2018: France, Peru, Denmark, Australia
Pot 4 due to ranking
2014: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia
Pots based on confederation, Australia could not draw AFC or CONCACAF. Would have been Pot 4 if based on ranking
2010: Germany, Ghana, Serbia, Australia
Pots based on confederation, Australia could not draw AFC, CONCACAF or OFC. Would have been Pot 3 if based on ranking
2006: Brazil, Croatia, Japan, Australia
Pots based on confederation, Australia could not draw unseeded CONMEBOL or CAF teams. Would have been Pot 4 if based on ranking
1974: East Germany, West Germany, Chile, Australia
Pots based on confederation, Australia could not draw Haiti, Sweden or Zaire (DR Congo). No ranking