Corner Picks: Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona primed for chaos; expect a Juventus snoozefest and an AC Milan win

Corner Picks is back for the first time in nearly two months. Has anything happened in the world of soccer since we left? Perhaps the debate between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo might finally have been settled once and for all? You know, did one of them win the World Cup, while the other one didn’t even start for his team in the World Cup, was released by his club team during the World Cup, and had to sign with a team on an entirely different continent afterward to find work?

Did that happen?

Anyway, while I enjoyed the World Cup, I’m happy club soccer has returned to us in mostly full force. International soccer is fun, and it’s getting a little more interesting tactically every year, but there’s nothing like club soccer. All the different ideas and approaches make the matches much more interesting and sometimes more difficult to bet. Let’s hope the latter isn’t true and that The Process didn’t get rusty over the break.

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Juventus vs. Udinese

Date: Saturday, Jan. 7 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+/CBS Sports Network

Featured Game | Juventus vs. Udinese

Serie A returned to action earlier this week, and Juventus picked up where they left off by playing a boring match and getting three points. I tell you, watching Max Allegri’s Juventus side play is like looking back in time, but I won’t judge because it works a lot better than what Juventus were trying to do. Juve won seven straight Serie A matches and have not allowed a goal in any of them. At home, they have allowed three goals in eight matches all season.

I expect Saturday to be another turgid affair. Udinese have been one of the higher-scoring teams in the league this season, but they overperformed in xG (expected goals) and have fared better at home than on the road. Plus, Gerard Deulofeu, Udinese’s primary creative engine, isn’t expected to play in this match due to a foot injury (there’s also been transfer speculation about him). I don’t see Udinese being the team to finally crack Juve without him, and while Juventus may get three on their own, it’ll happen by chance more than intent. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-115)

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AC Milan vs. Roma

Date: Sunday, Jan. 8 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Featured Game | AC Milan vs. Roma

It’s hard not to do victory laps about Roma, especially with so much of the season left to play, but I’m enjoying it too much. Over the summer, Roma made a few big moves, namely bringing in Paulo Dybala, and since their names were recognizable, Roma were pegged as the surprise team heading into the season. Meanwhile, Napoli lost the names everyone recognized and replaced them with players they hadn’t heard of, so Napoli was going to fall off the face of the Earth. Now, here we are, and Napoli are league leader by five points while Roma sit sixth and could be in seventh by the time the weekend ends.

While Napoli’s lead is significant, AC Milan pose a serious threat to catch them and take the league. They have a potent attack and an outstanding defense, and I love them in this matchup. Roma routinely fool the market with xG numbers because of their volume shooters who aren’t good finishers. As a result, they often struggle against good teams while overwhelming the bad ones. Take Milan. The Pick: AC Milan (-118)

Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona

Date: Sunday, Jan. 8 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

Barcelona remain a mess off the field, as they are still desperately trying to find ways to find the money they already spent, but things are going relatively well on the field. They are tied with Real Madrid atop the table in points but ahead on goal differential. Looking at xG, there’s no reason to believe Barcelona have been getting lucky or are due for some drop-off. Now, that doesn’t mean they’ll hold on to the lead (Real Madrid are in better shape to add this month than Barcelona, but maybe there’s a lever to pull they haven’t made up discovered yet). Anyway, in this match, they’re facing another Spanish giant amid its own soap opera.

There seems to be a tiny mutiny inside Atletico Madrid, but I’m not convinced that’s a problem. I believe Diego Simeone sees friction between him and his players as a feature, not a bug. He doesn’t care who his team is angry at, just so long as they’re angry and take it out on their opponent during matches. Unfortunately for Simeone, his team hasn’t been nearly as strong on the defensive end as he’d prefer, and I think that’s something we can take advantage of here. Atleti’s home matches in the league this season have been higher scoring (2.71 per), and Barcelona has been scoring 2.29 goals per match on the road. This one could get nuts. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

Weekend Parlay

OK, so there isn’t a lot of league action this weekend. The Premier League is off for the FA Cup, and Germany and France aren’t playing. That means we’re somewhat limited in our parlay options, but I’ve found two FA Cup matches and one match from La Liga that gives us a nice three-leg parlay paying +122.

• Tottenham (-850)
• Aston Villa (-700)
• Sevilla (-135)