Corner Picks, best soccer bets, predictions odds: Roma get it done vs. AC Milan, Liverpool down Tottenham

I don’t know what Mauricio Pochettino is thinking. Well, all right, I have a decent idea of what he’s thinking. He thinks Chelsea will pay him a lot of money to manage a club capable of winning the Champions League and will back him with the kind of financial support a manager needs to win trophies.

But I don’t know why he’d choose Chelsea. Has he not looked at what’s happened since Todd Boehly took over? Chelsea have thrown a lot of money at every shiny object they saw without considering how it would all work when put together and fired two managers this season, Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter. Tuchel had won a Champions League with Chelsea not long ago and wasn’t on the market long, as he’s now the manager at Bayern Munich. Potter was considered The Future of English Football, with a sterling reputation that was quickly undone by the mess at Stamford Bridge.

Pochettino, who was last seen managing a PSG team that spent a lot of money on shiny objects without regard for how all of it would work together, has now decided he wants to do it again. I genuinely do not get it, but I wish him luck. I wish us luck with this week’s picks as well. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Roma vs. AC Milan

Date: Saturday, April 29 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

While Napoli could clinch Serie A this weekend, the race for the other three Champions League spots is still very interesting, particularly now that Juventus have had their 15-point penalty rescinded (for now, at least). Entering the weekend, Roma and AC Milan are tied for fourth on 56 points with a goal differential of +14. This match is rather important to both! They’re also in similar situations: AC Milan remain in the Champions League, while Roma are in the Europa League. Both clubs must navigate the choppy waters of succeeding in one competition without hurting their chances in the other, and that’s not easy to do.

When looking at this match, though, I don’t think Roma are getting nearly enough respect on the market. Like most teams, Milan have been much better at home than away from it. They have an expected goal differential (xGD) of +0.67 at home compared to +0.27 on the road. In more concrete terms, Milan have a goal differential of +13 at home compared to +1 at home and score only 1.31 goals per match on the road compared to 2 at home. More pertinent, Milan have won only two of their last nine matches away from San Siro (I’m not counting the 1-0 “road” loss to Inter). They’ve been outscored 17-11 in those matches, including Milan’s 4-0 win at Napoli. Meanwhile, Roma have won 11 of their last 13 at home. The Pick: Roma (+175)

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Date: Sunday, April 30 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

Another match where the home/road splits make things a little too obvious. Before I get to that, though, I want to make it clear I’m not worried about any positive vibes from Tottenham coming back from a 2-0 deficit to draw Manchester United during the week. While it was nice to see signs of life, one half does not negate the club’s problems, and that was at home. Tottenham’s been good there all season. Their xGD per match at home this season is at +0.57. On the road, where they’ll be this week, it’s -0.25 per match. And guess what? Liverpool are an entirely different team at home. Their xGD per match is +1.19 at Anfield compared to -0.15 everywhere else.

More important, Liverpool are finally starting to look decent again. Sure, their last three matches have been against Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, but they won all three convincingly. Plus, the 2-2 draw to Arsenal earlier this month was misleading. Using xG, Liverpool “outscored” Arsenal 3.9-1.4 in that match. Liverpool can pass Tottenham in the table and climb into the Europa League spots with a win here. That may not have been the goal at the start of the season, but it’s all Liverpool have to play for right now, and I expect they’ll put their best foot forward trying to achieve it. The Pick: Liverpool (-200)

Wolfsburg vs. Mainz

Date: Sunday, April 30 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

It’s been too long since we took an over in a Bundesliga match in the column. They’ve been very profitable for us. This spot is particularly intriguing because Wolfsburg are fifth in the league with 51 goals scored, while Mainz are tied for sixth at 49. While they’re not the highest-scoring teams in the league, both have seen an average of over 3.0 goals scored in their matches this season.

As for this matchup, Wolfsburg average 1.76 xG per match at home, which is pretty good, ranking sixth in the league. While they defend better at home, Mainz are not a shrinking violet when they hit the road. Their 1.36 xG per match on the road ranks fourth in the league behind Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. Defensively, Mainz rank 13th (of 18) in xG allowed per match on the road. Throw all those fancy numbers together, and what you get is a match likely to see at least three goals scored. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-120)

Weekend Parlay

This week we’re focusing on four GIANT clubs all winning their matches in a four-leg parlay that pays +124.

• Real Madrid (-700)
• Barcelona (-310)
• Manchester City (-450)
• Napoli (-470)