Corner Picks, Champions League best bets, odds, predictions: Liverpool vs. Real Madrid a high scoring affair

The Champions League returned to action last week (you can catch all the matches on Paramount+), and while there were exciting matches, they weren’t the highest-scoring affairs. Each of the four matches saw the loser shutout, and two of the most exciting moments may have been goals by PSG’s Kylian Mbappe that didn’t count because both were ruled offside.

This was perfect for Corner Picks because we bet Bayern Munich to win, which they did. Barely. It was an average start to our Champions League betting, as we went 2-2 overall but did make a profit. Let’s try to add to it with this week’s matches, and as you’ll see in the picks below, we’re expecting a few more goals to be scored this time around. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 21 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

One of the more humorous aspects of media coverage of European soccer, particularly when it comes to the big English clubs, is that one or two losses are a disaster, but a win or two ending the streak means everything is fixed. And that’s where we find the narrative surrounding Liverpool after consecutive 2-0 wins over Everton and Newcastle. However, I’m not buying in. While the win over Everton was emphatic, the Newcastle match was quite misleading. Liverpool won 2-0, but the expected goals (xG) were much closer, with Liverpool winning 2.4-2.0, and that’s despite Liverpool playing with a man advantage for over an hour. Based on what I saw, the same defensive issues Liverpool have dealt with nearly all season remained. Furthermore, Darwin Nunez left the match early, and there’s no definitive answer on his status for Tuesday. “We have to see how he can deal with the pain [and] when we know that, we make a decision,” manager Jurgen Klopp said of his forward.

On the other side, there’s a Real Madrid team that beat Liverpool in the Champions League final last spring, and Liverpool haven’t won any of their last six meetings with Madrid (one draw, five losses). The problem is Real Madrid have to be tired. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, Real Madrid have played 14 matches to Liverpool’s eight, including trips to Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Complicating matters further, Real Madrid should have Karim Benzema, but neither Aurelien Tchouameni nor Toni Kroos will be available for the match, leaving them a bit light in the midfield. There’s an excellent chance this one could get loose. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-150)

Featured Game | Liverpool vs. Real Madrid

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Napoli

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 21 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I don’t know if Napoli are the best team in the world at the moment, but they’ve undoubtedly been the most dominant. They have a 15-point lead over Inter Milan in Serie A, and their goal differential of 41 is more than twice the next-highest number in the league (Lazio, 20). They won five of six Champions League group stage matches, outscoring opponents 20-6, including a 4-1 win over Liverpool. Their lone loss was a 2-0 loss at Anfield to finish the group stage after Napoli had already secured first place in the group.

Then there’s Frankfurt, which are currently sixth in the Bundesliga and got through the group stage despite allowing more goals (eight) than they scored (seven) in six matches. While it’s never easy to go on the road and win in the Champions League, my sense here is that Frankfurt isn’t solid enough defensively to deny a Napoli squad that nobody has been able to stop. The Pick: Napoli (+113)

Featured Game | Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Napoli

RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 22 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

While I know Arsenal fans are terrified of Manchester City looming over their shoulder in the Premier League, the primary reason I don’t quite believe in City this season is their defending. In short, while it’s not bad, it’s not up to City’s usual standard. They still dominate the ball most matches, but when they lose it, they’ve been disorganized and far more open at the back. Perhaps that’s due to Pep Guardiola doing Pep things like playing Bernardo Silva at left back, but I digress. While I expect City to win this match, I also think this is precisely the matchup City can struggle against.

Leipzig is effective on the counter and can score goals with minimal possession. They can take advantage of City pressing as high up the pitch as they do and can easily pip one or maybe even two goals of their own in this matchup. Leipzig’s problem is I don’t see how they don’t allow a few as well. The truth is, we may not even need Leipzig to score. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-145)

Featured Game | RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City

Inter Milan vs. Porto

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 22 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

At home in Portugal’s Primeira Liga, Porto are dominant defensively. That’s often the case with the league’s top teams. Porto have allowed only 12 goals on an xG of 15.3 in 21 matches. On the road against Inter at San Siro, I expect Porto to bring that pragmatic approach, as they would be happy with a draw here. The problem for Porto is that they haven’t been nearly as strong defensively in the Champions League. In Portugal, they’ve allowed 0.57 goals and 0.73 xG per match. In six Champions League group stage matches, they allowed 1.17 goals and 1.55 xG per match. And, no disrespect to any of them, but that was in a group with Club Brugge, Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid.

Inter survived — to the surprise of many, including myself — a group that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona. While they got smacked around by Bayern in two losses, they picked up 10 points in their other four matches, and that proved enough. And that was when Inter were struggling early in the season. While they’re still not playing at a level where you’d expect them to make a deep run here, they’ve been good enough lately (particularly defensively) that they should be able to pick up a win at home here against Porto. The Pick: Inter Milan (-135)