Corner Picks, soccer best bets, predictions, odds: Lots of goals in Liverpool vs. Arsenal, Juventus top Lazio

I was not an exceptional basketball player growing up. I played a lot, and I was tall for my age — I was six feet tall eighth grade — so I had value. However, I was below average when it came to the skilled parts of the game.

I could rebound, defend, and occasionally hit some shots, but you didn’t want me running the offense. While I could dribble, doing so while moving quickly wasn’t my strength, so I wasn’t often beating players with my handle. However, once in a while, something would take over me, and I’d have an incredible game.

Every shot I took would go in. This would inspire me to try more things, and the next thing I knew, I was driving past defenders and easily getting to the rim, making reverse layups and all sorts of shots I shouldn’t dream of making. My friends would shake their heads because they knew that if we came back and played again tomorrow, I wouldn’t do any of it again.

I bring this up because I learned then that, on days like that, don’t try to figure out what’s happening. Overthinking it would ruin it. Just go with it and let it happen. After another 4-0 week in this column last week, I’m taking the same approach here. All odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Lazio vs. Juventus

Date: Saturday, April 8 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS Sports Network

Lazio enter the weekend in second place in Serie A, but they’re probably the most mediocre second-place team in any of the top leagues. Frankly, their position is due more to the Milan clubs underperforming and Juventus being hit with a 15-point penalty than anything else. The underlying numbers for Lazio are all mediocre as hell. While they have a goal differential of +25 on the season, their expected goal (xG) differential is only +4.8. That ranks eighth in the league. They’ve gotten more than a little lucky.

Considering how terrible the team has been in attack lately, it will catch up sooner rather than later. Lazio have finished only one of their last six matches with an xG of 1.0 or higher, and that was a 2-1 loss to AZ Alkmaar in the Europa Conference League (they finished with 1.3 xG). Lazio beat Roma and Monza 3-0 in their last two matches but did so with an xG of 1.1 in those matches. Meanwhile, Juventus have been solid defensively and have already beaten Lazio twice this season, outscoring them 4-0 in the process. There’s a very strong chance Juve makes it a third straight win this weekend. The Pick: Juventus (+190)

Featured Game | Lazio vs. Juventus

Freiburg vs. Bayern Munich

Date: Saturday, April 8 | Time: 9:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

I’m not taking the bait! These two met earlier this week in the DFB Pokal, with Freiburg winning in Munich 2-1. However, let’s take a bigger picture look at Bayern right now. Thomas Tuchel was just brought in because Bayern had fallen to second place in the Bundesliga. Do you think Tuchel’s more focused on winning the league and possibly the Champions League or the DFB Pokal? Yeah, I thought so. He’s just taken over the job and must prioritize what’s truly important, and this match is far more important.

Considering how Bayern eviscerated Dortmund 4-2 in his first match, I believe we’ll see a similar approach this weekend. All that said, Freiburg are no pushover. They’re in fourth place in the league, though underlying numbers suggest it could have a hard time staying there down the stretch. That hard time begins Saturday. Bayern can hit the over on their own here, but I’d rather take the match total because Bayern are still allowing chances too. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+130)

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

Date: Sunday, April 9 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

I’ll start by saying I don’t hate taking Liverpool to win here. They’ve been drastically better at home this season, while Arsenal have been significantly worse on the road (using the metrics, not the results). But while that’s true and worth exploring, there’s more value on this total. Arsenal have allowed only nine goals in 14 away matches in the Premier League, but they’ve done so on an xG allowed of 12.8.

More than anything, I remember how the first match went between these two. Arsenal won 3-2 at the Emirates and was ruthlessly efficient in attack. Six of their 10 shots were on target, and three went in. Liverpool had plenty of chances themself, however, and controlled the ball for most of the match despite being the away team. I don’t know that we’ll see another five goals scored in the rematch this weekend, but three seems extremely likely. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)

Featured Game | Liverpool vs. Arsenal

Weekend Parlay

It’s only a three-leg parlay this weekend, but it has a healthy payout of +228.

• Manchester City (-440)
• RB Leipzig (-160)
• Marseille (-155)