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As the Champions League winds its way towards the last eight, the Europa League hurtles forward at breackneck speed with the group winners from last autumn now joined by Thursday night’s playoff winners for a draw that has thrown up balanced ties where plenty of favorites will be tested (you can catch all the action from both competitions on Paramount+). Equally, if results go the way that one would assume — certainly not a given where this competition is concerned — the quarterfinals could be a thrilling cocktail of the great, the good and a few faded giants thrown into the mix.
Regular readers of our bold prediction column, previewing the biggest of matchups in the Champions League, will be expecting minute, some might say tediously so, analysis of minor factors that may or may not have any bearing on the match. Not this time. This is the pedal to the metal, all action Europa League we’re talking about. No great assessments on where these clubs are in the continental firmament, we’re hitting these games hard and fast, like a Grzegorz Krychowiak tackle (other Europa League icons are available).
Union Berlin vs. Union Saint-Gilloise
There’ll be enough coordinated Union action in this game to give Rishi Sunak the jitters and this battle between the ‘hipster’ clubs of each nation promises to be one of the closer fought of the round of 16. After all we already have plenty of data to go on with these two, who met in the group stages, where both sides won their road game 1-0.
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Union Berlin are writing one of the great stories in European football as they vie for the Bundesliga title this season but are doing so off the back of an almighty expected goals (xG) hot streak, if that cools then Union SG might emerge victorious without this tie needing to go all the way to sudden death.
Prediction: Union Berlin 2, Union SG 2 (Union SG win on penalties)
Sevilla vs. Fenerbahce
Sevilla’s great Europa League heritage was on full display as they almost blew their spot in the ascendancy against PSV Eindhoven, a performance so of their golden age in this competition that you expected the camera to cut to a furtive Unai Emery on the byline. It would therefore be extremely appropriate if this midtable La Liga side turned it on to overcome Fenerbahce’s freescoring tandem of Enner Valencia and Michy Batshuayi, but a second leg in Istanbul might be the swing factor Jorge Jesus’ side need.
Prediction: Sevilla 2, Fenerbahce 4
Juventus vs. Freiburg
After the initial shock that came with matters off the field, Massimiliano Allegri’s side are rounding back into the form that took them to second place in Serie A before the FIGC’s intervention with a 15 point deduction. A returning Federico Chiesa, an in-form Dusan Vlahovic and an ageless Angel Di Maria should give them enough punch to overcome Freiburg but it is certain to be a tough task. Christian Streich’s side are fourth in the Bundesliga at the time of writing and can surely expect an even better performance from top scorer Vincenzo Grifo when he returns to his homeland.
Prediction: Juventus 3, Freiburg 1
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Ferencvaros
The Europa League is the place to see stars being forged rather than emerging ready made, and this tie may offer two, both in Bayer Leverkusen colors. After missing the World Cup due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament, Florian Wirtz has been easing himself back into action. He may not be the force he was before the injury but then that player was perhaps the most devastating creative force in the Bundesliga at 18 years of age. In the Europa League he averages 0.7 non-penalty xG and expected assists per 90 minutes, among the mere eight players who have played over 200 minutes and bettered that tally are Marcus Rashford, Gabriel Jesus and Cristiano Ronaldo.
On the sidelines Xabi Alonso appears to be making a profound impact on a side that were teetering above the relegation zone before his appointment, winning seven and losing five of his 13 Bundesliga games so far. He may not have resolved the inherent Neverkusen-ness of this club, if he did by winning the Europa League then it would surely not be long before Europe’s best clubs were making eyes at the Bay Arena.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 4, Ferencvaros 2
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal
Arsenal have bigger fish to fry and, subject to fitness, a squad that would allow them to effectively cleave off a separate XI to play in this competition. That comes with its risks: Rob Holding and an untested Jakub Kiwior can’t offer the same ball progression platform as Gabriel and William Saliba, while any player who comes in for Bukayo Saka would struggle to match his output, not least Reiss Nelson. What will decide this tie is how willing Mikel Arteta is to use the players who are most vital in the Gunners potentially winning the Premier League.
Sporting may not be able to overcome a Gabriel Jesus and Saka-led Arsenal but if the Gunners are not at the peak of their powers we know this team can give them all sorts of difficulties. After all, they came within half an hour of the Champions League knockout rounds and took four points from Tottenham. They may not have set the Portuguese league alight but if they are taken for granted Ruben Amorim’s side might be the best bet to cause an upset.
Prediction: Sporting 3, Arsenal 2
Manchester United vs. Real Betis
Their invigorating victory over Barcelona has set the stage for a deep European run at Old Trafford. With the Premier League title looking like a long shot, it would not be a surprise to see Erik ten Hag give his best XI an awful lot of minutes in this competition. If he does so, even a good Real Betis side may not be able to stop this team all that much, particularly if Jadon Sancho can take further strides after an encouraging revival of form. Add Antony and even a semi-frequently fit Anthony Martial to the frontline and they might just about have the attacking depth to balance multiple competitions. The only concern would be in midfield, where they might be a little too short without Christian Eriksen. That could catch up with them in the Premier League or Europa League but with a home game against Southampton either side of these legs they should get the job done.
Prediction: Manchester United 3, Real Betis 1
Roma vs. Real Sociedad
The tie of the round pits third in Serie A against third in La Liga, unsurprisingly given their respective standings in domestic competitions, this might just be too tight to call. Real’s topping of a group that included Manchester United marks them out as a formidable contender, while Roma made rather heavy weather of finishing second behind Betis. However, that is rather the tale of their season, one where the points tally has not quite matched underlying metrics that have them as comfortably the second best team in Serie A.
Twenty3
Jose Mourinho’s side create quite a lot of high value shots, as you can see in the graphic above, their problem has just been that Tammy Abraham and company had an ice cold start to the season in front of goal. That has started to improve of late and might just be enough to get them through this tie.
Prediction: Roma 4, Real Sociedad 3 (after extra time)
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Feyenoord
For a side that had not played a competitive game since November 23, Shakhtar showed impressive resilience to overcome Rennes, though they were outclassed in the second leg and would have crashed out if not for Jeanoel Belocian’s own goal in the 119th minute. There is talent in the Ukrainian defense, most notably Antoliy Trubin and Mykola Matviyenko, but they will do well to quell a Feyenoord side who have streaked to the top of the Eredivisie with an everyone eats attack in which nine players average between two and 4.5 shots per 90 minutes.
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 1, Feyenoord 3
