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If your pre-season Premier League predictions are still intact, you’re either a time-traveller, have ridiculous foresight or, well, you’re extremely lucky.
To date, this season has thrown up thrills and spills we could scarcely predict.
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An unexpected contender remains in pole position in the title race while another has crashed and burned in emphatic fashion.
There’s also a number of surprise packages jostling for the European spots against the heavyweights of the league.
Oh, and nine teams are scrapping it out in what’s proving to be a thrilling fight for survival.
The best part, though?
We’re not even finished with the season.
There’s as many as 13 to 10 games left for the teams between now and the end of the campaign, with plenty more twists and turns left to play out.
Foxsports.com.au breaks down the key scenarios in the Premier League State of Play!
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THREE-PEAT OR THE END OF A 19-YEAR DROUGHT?
Having finished in the top two in every season since 2017/18, it’s no surprise Manchester City are once again firmly in contention for a third-straight Premier League title, a feat not achieved since Manchester United’s three-peat in 2008/09.
A key element of City’s dominance is down to the mind-boggling form of Erling Haaland, who has scored 28 goals in 26 games.
The Norwegian has feasted on inch-perfect deliveries from his teammates, especially Kevin de Bruyne, who has provided a league-leading 12 assists and will want to break his own record of 20 assists in a season.
Despite Haaland’s freakish ability in front of goal and the overall prowess of the team, City are not in first place.
In fact they are eight points behind the league leaders, albeit they have a game in hand.
Sitting pretty at the summit of the Premier League is Arsenal, who are on track to win their first title since 2003/04.
In just his third full season as a manager, Mikel Arteta has got his side humming and have obliterated all pre-season expectations.
The brilliance of Gabriel Jesus up top has been complimented by the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli on the wings as well as skipper Martin Odegaard pulling the strings in the midfield.
A steely backline has also been pivotal to the Gunners’ remarkable season, conceding just 26 goals; the third-lowest figure in the league.
Crucially for the Gunners, they no longer have to divert any focus to a European or domestic cup competition, allowing them to solely concentrate on giving everything to win the league.
As for City, they are still in the hunt for the FA Cup and the Champions League, with the latter a trophy that remains a key objective.
When it comes to analysing both team’s final fixtures for the season, they are remarkably similar.
Arsenal and City face six of the same opponents in that very run: Southampton, West Ham United, Brighton, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leeds United.
Yet all eyes will be on April 26 when the Gunners travel to the Etihad to take on City in a game which holds monumental implications.
Should the Gunners win, it would just about clinch the title providing the points gap remains the same going into the fixture.
But if City secure the three points, it could swing momentum firmly in favour of Guardiola’s side with five fixtures to play.
THE SIX-WAY TUSSLE TO JOIN EUROPE’S ELITE
With Arsenal and Manchester City unofficially assured of a Champions League spot next season, the hunt is firmly on for teams to qualify for Europe’s premier club competition.
At present, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are in the driver’s seat to compete in the Champions League, with the Red Devils in third on 50 points and Spurs in fourth on 49.
One aspect in United’s favour is their two-game buffer over Spurs, meaning they could be seven points clear of the London outfit should they take maximum points from their games in hand.
Spurs are also nervously looking over their shoulder at Newcastle United, who lie one spot behind and are on 47 points.
However, like United, Eddie Howe’s side have two games in hand and could leapfrog Spurs.
Tottenham have also rolled the dice on its season as they fired Antonio Conte, an inevitable decision in the wake of his explosive press conference, and installed Cristian Stellini as the interim head coach in the hopes of steering the side into the final four yet again.
The move could ultimately prove to be a masterstroke, or it could unravel in ugly fashion.
Also sniffing around the Champions League spots are Liverpool and the unlikely presence of Brighton.
Liverpool are in sixth with 42 points but have two games in hand, a disappointing return given many tipped the Reds to be competing for the title having come agonisingly close last year.
As for the Seagulls, they are equal on points and lie one spot behind but have the added bonus of three games in hand on Spurs.
Brentford have enjoyed a tremendous season but are unlikely to have enough juice to barge into the European spots as they are also on 42 points but only have one game in hand.
So, time for the all-important question: who’s going to finish in the final four outside of Arsenal and City?
Well, according to the gurus at the respected statistical site FiveThirtyEight, Manchester United and Newcastle are set to be the ones among Europe’s elite next season.
The Red Devils have a 74 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League while Eddie Howe’s side have a 44 per cent chance.
As for their rivals, Liverpool sit at 29 per cent, Brighton at 26 per cent and Spurs — who already sit in fourth — are an alarming 25 per cent chance of qualifying.
Whether FiveThirtyEight’s predictions come true remains to be seen, but whichever way you want to look at it, it’s grim reading for Spurs fans.
NINE TEAMS, FOUR POINTS: THE FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL
At last, at long last, we have a proper relegation race on our hands.
Four points is all that separates 20th-placed Southampton from 12th-placed Crystal Palace, with seven clubs sandwiched in between.
A whopping six of the bottom nine have all made a managerial change at some stage this season, with Southampton remarkably making two.
Only West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Leicester City elected to stick rather than twist when it came to their man in the dugout, but that isn’t to say David Moyes, Steve Cooper and Brendan Rodgers have been under immense pressure to keep their respective roles.
Over the course of the season, the bottom-half teams have constantly traded positions.
For instance, Wolves were rooted to the bottom of the table at Christmas with just two wins from 15 games, including nine defeats.
13 games later, the Midlands outfit has won five, drawn twice and lost six in a remarkable turnaround overseen by Julen Lopetegui that has the team sitting 13th.
Leeds United occupy 14th but already look a more assured and compact outfit under former Watford boss Javi Gracia since sacking Jesse Marsch.
Below Leeds is Everton, who have slowly climbed up the ladder after Sean Dyche took up the Goodison Park hot seat.
Going against the Toffees is their remaining games, with six of their final ten coming against teams in the top half.
In 16th is Forest, who have not won since February 6 and face an equally-daunting fixture list.
Of the 11 games Steve Cooper’s side have to play, six of those games are against teams in the top 10.
Such is the difficulty of games on the horizon, FiveThirtyEight has pegged Forest at a 56 per cent chance of being relegated despite being out of the bottom three.
Leicester, who won the FA Cup only two seasons ago, are one place above the relegation zone on 25 points but have lost four of their last five games.
Australians are certainly keeping a keen eye on the Foxes’ situation given the presence of a certain Harry Souttar at the back, with the towering defender expected to play a pivotal role in the run-in.
On to the bottom three and it’s West Ham who sit 18th.
The Hammers would very much fit the bill of ‘too good to go down’, but, as history has shown, the drain into the Championship does not care how much money you spent or how deep you went in Europe.
In West Ham’s favour is their record of goals conceded, which is better than the likes of United and Spurs.
However, their inability to find the back of the net has proven fatal on several occasions, although Hammers fans hope the January signing of renowned Premier League marksman Danny Ings will solve that issue.
Bournemouth are next in 19th and hope to avoid a straight return to the Championship.
The Cherries have proven capable of pulling off shock results, beating Liverpool 1-0 on March 11 and were seconds away from a draw against Arsenal in the game prior.
However, FiveThirtyEight doesn’t believe Gary O’Neil’s side will have enough juice in the tank and have a 54 per cent chance of going down.
That leaves us with Southampton in last place.
In an attempt to survive, the Saints have churned through Ralph Hassenhuttl and Nathan Jones in the dugout, with rookie manager Ruben Selles tasked with doing his best to achieve safety.
However, the Spaniard — like his managerial counterparts at Everton and Forest — must lead his side into battle against six of the top ten, including games against title contenders City and Arsenal.
That’s why they have the greatest chance of going down, with FiveThirtyEight predicting a 68 per cent chance of relegation.
There’s plenty more chapters to be written for teams at all ends of the table.
One win and Southampton could be dreaming about survival instead of life in the Championship.
One loss and Manchester City loosen its grip on the Premier League title.
Who knows how it will all shake out, but if this season has told us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.
