Australia will be hoping to repeat the magic of four years ago and escape the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is the first with 48 teams.
That means 32 nations will advance into the knockouts – 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and the eight best third-placed teams. And there are complex numbers behind who’ll be placed where in the knockout bracket.
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Below, we explain who the Socceroos can face in the knockout stage and how the third-place system works.
SOCCEROOS’ WORLD CUP SCHEDULE (All times AEST)
Sunday June 14: Group D – Australia vs Turkiye – 2pm, BC Place, Vancouver
Saturday June 20: Group D – USA vs Australia – 5am, Lumen Field, Seattle
Friday June 26: Group D – Paraguay vs Australia – 12pm, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Potential Round of 32 game times for Australia
If advancing as third-place team and they draw Group E winner
Tuesday June 30, 6:30am at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
If advancing as third-place team and they draw Group I winner
Wednesday July 1, 7am at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
If advancing as group winner, facing third-placer from Group B/E/F/I/J
Thursday July 2, 10am at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
If advancing as group runner-up, facing Group G runner-up
Saturday July 4, 4am at AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
If advancing as third-place team and they draw Group K winner
Saturday July 4, 11:30am at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
WHO CAN AUSTRALIA FACE IN THE KNOCKOUTS?
If the Socceroos finish second in their group, they will play the Group G runner-up on July 4 in Dallas.
That group is expected to be topped by Belgium, with Egypt, Iran and lowly New Zealand the other contenders – meaning Mo Salah’s nation would be the most likely opponent based on pre-tournament expectations.
The group runner-up fixture, at 4am AEST, is the least-friendly timeslot the Aussies can play their round-of-32 game in.
The winner of that game would then face either the Group J winner (likely Argentina) or the Group H runner-up in the round of 16.
If the Socceroos manage to win Group D, they will face a third-place team from either Group B, E, F, I or J – but in most scenarios (66.5%) it would be Group B (should they provide a third-placer).
That would see the Aussies face one of Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar or Switzerland on July 2 in San Francisco (10am AEST).
The winner of that game is then likely to face the Group G winner (Belgium favoured) in the round of 16.
HOW ARE THE THIRD-PLACERS ADVANCING TO THE KNOCKOUT STAGE DETERMINED?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout bracket has 495 possible combinations based on which groups provide the best third-place teams.
For example, if groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H provide the best third-placers, ahead of groups I, J, K and L, that would be one scenario and see a predetermined arrangement of round of 32 match-ups – and so on.
For what it’s worth, third-placers will likely only need three points and a non-negative goal difference from their three group stage matches to advance, based on simulations.
For Australia in Group D, if they finish third they can be drawn against the winner of Group E, I or K.
But some scenarios are more common than others. In around 64% of scenarios the Socceroos would face the Group E winner (expected to be Germany or Ecuador), in 30% would face the Group I winner (France or Norway), and in around 6% would face the Group K winner (Portugal or Colombia).
The most likely match, against the Group E winner, would be played at 6:30am AEST on Tuesday June 30 in Boston.
Some group winners cannot be drawn at all, because they’re locked in to face the runner-up of another group instead – this is the case with Groups C and F (whose winners will face each other’s runners-up), and with Groups H and J.
WHO THE THIRD-PLACERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FACE IN THE KNOCKOUTS
Based on pre-tournament group favourites and number of scenarios
If qualifying from Group A (Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia)
95.2% G winner (Belgium favourite), 4.8% E winner (Germany favourite)
If qualifying from Group B (Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland)
99.7% D winner (USA favourite), 0.3% E winner (Germany favourite)
If qualifying from Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland)
70% E winner (Germany favourite), 29.4% A winner (Mexico favourite), 0.6% I winner (France favourite)
If qualifying from Group D (USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye)
64.2% E winner (Germany favourite), 30% I winner (France favourite), 5.8% K winner (Portugal favourite)
If qualifying from Group E (Germany, Curacao, Cote d’Ivoire, Ecuador)
55.2% A winner (Mexico favourite), 14.5% K winner (Portugal favourite), 11.8% D winner (USA favourite), 8.5% L winner (England favourite), 7.9% B winner (Switzerland favourite), 1.8% G favourite (Belgium favourite)
If qualifying from Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia)
83.6% I winner (France favourite), 10.6% E winner (Germany favourite), 3.3% D winner (USA favourite), 1.5% B winner (Switzerland favourite), 0.9% A winner (Mexico favourite)
If qualifying from Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand)
78.8% B winner (Switzerland favourite), 21.2% I winner (France favourite)
If qualifying from Group H (Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay)
58.8% A winner (Mexico favourite), 25.8% G winner (Belgium favourite), 14.5% I winner (France favourite)
If qualifying from Group I (France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway)
34.2% L winner (England favourite), 27.6% K winner (Portugal favourite), 15.8% D winner (USA favourite), 12.4% G winner (Belgium favourite), 5.8% A winner (Mexico favourite), 4.2% B winner (Switzerland favourite)
If qualifying from Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan)
57.6% B winner (Switzerland favourite), 19.4% D winner (USA favourite), 14.8% G winner (Belgium favourite), 6.1% L winner (England favourite), 2.1% K winner (Portugal favourite)
If qualifying from Group K (Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia)
100% L winner (England favourite)
If qualifying from Group L (England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama)
100% K winner (Portugal favourite)
ALL POSSIBLE SOCCEROOS ROUND OF 32 OPPONENTS
If Australia wins Group D
A third-place team from either Group B, E, F, I or J (most likely B)
Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar or Switzerland
Group E: Germany, Curacao, Cote d’Ivoire or Ecuador
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden or Tunisia
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq or Norway
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria or Jordan
If Australia finishes second in Group D
The runner-up from Group G
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran or New Zealand
If Australia finishes third in Group D and is one of the eight best-ranked teams
The winner of Group E, Group I or Group K (most likely E)
Group E: Germany, Curacao, Cote d’Ivoire or Ecuador
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq or Norway
Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan or Colombia
Who Australia cannot play in the Round of 32
A team from Group A, Group C, Group D, Group H or Group L
Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea or Czechia
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti or Scotland
Group D: USA, Paraguay or Türkiye
Group H: Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia or Uruguay
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana or Panama