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We’re less than two months away from the all-important World Cup draw in the early hours of December 6, with Australia still clinging onto hope of an easier group in the first ever 48-nation tournament.
So far, 22 countries have qualified for the finals with more set to clinch their places during the current international break period.
And as it stands the Socceroos, No.24 in the world on the live FIFA rankings, are right on the precipice between the second and third pots of 12 teams which will be used to draw the groups.
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Almost all of the teams ranked above Australia will qualify for the World Cup but some European powers will forced into the UEFA playoff stage which places them in pot four, instead of their rightful place based on their ranking.
And in a major boost to the Socceroos’ chances, beating Canada combined with Austria’s loss to Romania this week pushed the European nation down below Australia, and into projected pot three.
Irankunda goal leads AUS win vs Canada | 02:26
Being in pot two not only guarantees you can’t be drawn against the other pot two teams in the group stage – such as Croatia, Colombia and Uruguay – but gives Australia the chance of being the highest-ranked team in its group, if drawn against tournament host Canada.
Other nations who could fall below the Socceroos, despite being ranked higher, include:
– Italy (second in their group behind Norway)
– Belgium (lead group but just ahead of North Macedonia)
– Germany (level with Slovakia leading their group)
– Senegal (lead group but could be caught by DR Congo)
– Denmark (level with Scotland leading their group)
These are the nations Australia wants to see lose over the coming weeks, as only the top 23 in the FIFA rankings are guaranteed to make the first two pots (because Canada is locked into pot one).
As it stands just one of these teams, Italy, is projected to be placed in a lower pot after qualifying via the playoffs. That means 24th-ranked Australia currently makes it. But if two or more are forced into this route, Australia could be virtually guaranteed a Pot 2 place.
CURRENT PROJECTED WORLD CUP QUALIFYING POTS
Pot 1
Mexico, USA, Canada (all three guaranteed as hosts), Spain, France, Argentina, England, Portugal, Brazil, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany
Pot 2
Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Senegal, Denmark, Japan, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Australia
Pot 3
Austria, Panama, Norway, Egypt, Algeria, Paraguay, Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Uzbekistan, Qatar, South Africa
Pot 4
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Jamaica, Cape Verde, Ghana, New Zealand, Italy, Turkiye, Ukraine, Wales, Cameroon, Bolivia
Italics = officially qualified as of October 14 AEDT
Foxsports.com.au conducted a mock World Cup draw in June, which saw the Socceroos in Pot 3, and placed in a group with England, Morocco and Jamaica.
No countries from the same confederation can be drawn into the same group, except UEFA, with two European countries to be placed in at least four groups (because 16 European teams will qualify).
In their current best-case scenario, the Socceroos could be in a group with Canada (world ranking No.28), South Africa (No.57) and Bolivia (No.76).
They could boost their chances of making Pot 2 with a win over the USA in Denver on Wednesday afternoon (AEDT).
Cape Verde, an African island nation of just 550,000 people, became the second-smallest to ever qualify for the World Cup by beating Eswatini 3-0 overnight.
They will join Asian nations Uzbekistan and Jordan as making their debuts at the World Cup finals in 2026.
Two more World Cup debutants could be confirmed on Wednesday. In Group C of African qualifying, Benin (17 pts) currently leads South Africa (15 pts) and Nigeria (14 pts), and will face Nigeria away on Wednesday morning AEDT while South Africa hosts Rwanda.
South Africa saw a win earlier in qualifying overturned due to fielding an ineligible player and only drew with lowly Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile Gabon sits one point behind Ivory Coast in Group F, needing the leaders to drop points against Kenya on Wednesday morning, while they face Burundi.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw will be held on December 5 at 12pm ET in Washington DC, which is December 6 at 3am AEDT.
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STATE OF PLAY IN EACH CONFEDERATION
AFC (Asia)
Already qualified (6 of 8): Iran, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan, Japan, Australia
The next two direct qualifiers will be determined overnight before a fifth-round playoff to determine who makes the inter-confederation playoffs.
The UAE faces Qatar, with a win or draw good enough to see the former qualify for a second time in history (1990), while Graham Arnold’s Iraq faces Saudi Arabia in a winner-take-all match.
Oman can still advance into the inter-confederation playoff if the UAE beats Qatar by two goals or more, while the Saudi Arabia-Iraq loser will also have a shot at the playoff.
CAF (Africa)
Already qualified (6 of 9): Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Ghana, Cape Verde
Six groups already have a winner with three more to be determined this week.
In Group B, Senegal just needs to avoid a loss to lowly Mauritania to advance ahead of DR Congo.
In Group C, Benin can qualify by beating Nigeria (who can also qualify with a win), or else South Africa could still directly qualify.
In Group F, Ivory Coast just needs to match or better Gabon’s result on the final matchday.
The four best runners-up will qualify for a playoff to determine which African nation makes the inter-confederation playoffs with Gabon, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Niger currently set to make it, though DR Congo and Uganda are also in the mix.
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CONCACAF (North and Central America)
Already qualified (3 of 6): Canada, Mexico, USA
The three host nations qualified automatically leaving a wide-open race for the confederation’s other three spots in the tournament.
Each nation has three matches remaining in the group stage.
In Group A, Suriname and Panama are tied for the lead (5 pts) and meet overnight, with El Salvador (3 pts) and Guatemala (2 pts) still in the mix. Suriname has never qualified for the World Cup finals.
In Group B, Curacao (7 pts) leads Jamaica (6 pts) and Trinidad and Tobago (4 pts), with Bermunda dead last (0 pts). Curacao, which beat Jamaica last week, has never qualified for the World Cup finals.
In Group C, group leaders Haiti and Honduras (5 pts) face off this week, with Costa Rica (3 pts) still in touch after three draws, ahead of Nicaragua (1 pt). Haiti has made only one World Cup finals, in 1974.
The three group winners will qualify directly, and the two best runners-up will make the inter-confederation playoff.
CONMEBOL (South America)
Already qualified (6 of 6): Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay
The South American qualifiers are complete with seventh-placed Bolivia to compete in the inter-confederation playoffs.
OFC (Oceania)
Already qualified (1 of 1): New Zealand
The Kiwis will be favoured to qualify for every World Cup from now on, and took care of business against Fiji and New Caledonia back in March.
New Caledonia, ranked No.150 in the world, will be serious underdogs in the inter-confederation playoffs.
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UEFA (Europe)
Already qualified (0 of 16): Nil
A few early qualifiers could be determined in the coming days but the final group games will occur in mid-November.
In Group A, it’s a tight race between Germany and Slovakia (9 pts), with Northern Ireland (6 pts) still in the mix and Luxembourg (0 pts) eliminated.
In Group B, Switzerland (10 pts) is favoured to advance ahead of Kosovo (7 pts), well ahead of Slovenia (3 pts) and Sweden (1 pt).
In Group C, Denmark and Scotland are level in the lead (10 pts), with Greece (3 pts) and Belarus (0 pts) eliminated.
In Group D, France (10 pts) looks well on-track to advance ahead of Ukraine (7 pts) and Iceland (4 pts), with Azerbaijan (1 pt) almost done.
In Group E, Spain (9 pts) also has an enormous goal difference lead over Turkiye (6 pts), with Georgia (3 pts) and Bulgaria (0 pts) not really relevant.
In Group F, Portugal (9 pts) can qualify with a win over Hungary (4 pts) this week, with Armenia (3 pts) and Republic of Ireland (1 pt) well back.
In Group G, the Netherlands (16 pts) is likely to hold off Poland (13 pts), with only Finland (10 pts) able to make the playoffs as a second-placer, ahead of Lithuania (3 pts) and Malta (2 pts).
In Group H, Austria (15 pts) is still holding off Bosnia and Herzegovina (13 pts), with Romania (10 pts) a chance to finish second. Cyprus (8 pts) is out but San Marino (0 pts) could make the playoff based on Nations League ranking if Romania makes the top two.
In Group I, Norway (18 pts) has virtually qualified ahead of Italy (12 pts), who must hold off Israel (9 pts) for second. Estonia (3 pts) is out but Moldova (0 pts) could make the playoff based on Nations League ranking.
In Group J, Belgium (14 pts) and North Macedonia (13 pts) are battling for direct qualification with Wales (10 pts) able to catch the latter when they face off in November.
In Group K, England (15 pts) is on the brink of qualifying ahead of Albania (11 pts), with Serbia (7 pts) likely to miss out along with Andorra (1 pt), though Latvia (5 pts) could make the playoff based on Nations League ranking.
In Group L, Croatia (16 pts) is likely to qualify ahead of Czechia (13 pts) with the lowly Faroe Islands (12 pts) shockingly in the mix too, while Montenegro (6 pts) and Gibraltar (0 pts) are out.
The 12 group runners-up and best four Nations League group winners will make the playoffs, with the teams to be split into four four-team playoff paths.
