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The World Cup draw could have been kinder for Australia, but then it might have been far worse. Instead, the Socceroos have landed in one of the tournament’s most balanced groups alongside co-hosts the United States, an emerging Türkiye side packed with young talent and a Paraguay team running high on emotion after a long absence and an insane send-off from their supporters.
The USA are the bookmakers’ favourites to top the group at $2.10, with Türkiye $3.20, Paraguay $4.33 and the Socceroos $10.
In an expanded World Cup where eight of the 12 third-placed teams get through, Australia stands a healthy chance of making the next round but needs at least one win, or three draws.
Here is who is standing in their way in Group D.
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GROUP-BY-GROUP: Analysis and predictions for where every team will finish
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Socceroos ready for World Cup heat | 00:48
UNITED STATES
The coach: Mauricio Pochettino
The Americans turned to a proven heavyweight when they hired the Argentine Pochettino following a disappointing Copa América campaign that saw the end of Gregg Berhalter’s time in charge.
Without having to worry about qualification, the former Tottenham, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea boss was charged with one task: forging a team capable of making a deep run into the finals (or, more simply, “make sure we don’t get embarrassed and thrown out of our own party too early”).
There has been a lot of speculation, fuelled as much by Pochettino as outsiders, that he will look to return to club land after the tournament, with AC Milan apparently leading the race for his signature.
He ruffled some feathers with his no-nonsense approach to the squad naming, deciding to email those borderline players who missed out rather than giving them the courtesy of a call.
That abruptness could get thrown back at him if the team exits in the group stage, otherwise it will be a footnote in history.
One thing’s for sure, he will be completely prepared for all eventualities.
“My life is 24 hours talking about football. For me it is every conversation, every action. It is my life, my passion,” he told the BBC.
“It is the way that I find to enjoy life. For me, family and football are the most important things, they are on the same level.”
The formation
Pochettino’s preferred system is nominally a 4-2-3-1, but, like many modern teams, the shape changes once the United States have possession. They build in a 3-2-5 with their full-backs pushing high and midfielders rotating positions to create overloads. Out of possession they typically fall into a more conventional 4-4-2 or 5-3-2 shape.
The result is a side that wants to play on the front foot and force opponents into mistakes. They manage to do that, but have defensive issues that mean they often make more mistakes than they provoke.
The star players
Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) remains the face of the national team, although he was overlooked for the captaincy in favour of veteran Tim Ream. Still, Pulisic carries the “Captain America” nickname, one which has become a bit of an albatross as his form declined this year.
Pulisic did end an 18-month national team scoring drought with a strike in a 3-2 win over Senegal in their penultimate pre-Cup friendly, having not found the net in his final 19 games of the season for AC Milan.
“I felt this confidence. I’ve played really well in recent months too, but all people seem to care about is goals,” Pulisic said.
“So hopefully now people can stop talking about it.”
Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) is the engine room of the team. Aggressive, disciplined and fiercely competitive, he is a key man in Pochettino’s lineup and was roundly praised by his former Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann, now coach of Germany, before the teams faced off on Sunday.
“I got to know Tyler Adams very, very well from his time at Leipzig,” Nagelsmann said.
“He is a player who played in the last World Cup. He is a player at the number six position who moves around a lot and attacks everything. He is rock solid, a player with an incredible mentality, and to add to that a very fine person.”
Folarin Balogun (Monaco) has given the United States something they have often lacked: a genuine goalscorer, rising to the top of the list of contenders, including Haji Wright, with impressive club form this year. He took his tally to nine goals in 27 matches for the national team with the winner against Senegal.
Weston McKennie (Juventus) brings energy, physicality and a knack for scoring important goals from midfield. His ability to impact games at both ends makes him one of the squad’s most influential figures.
“He’s an asset to this team, and to me, he’s growing into being probably the most important player on this team,” said former USMNT star Maurice Edu on Fox Sports.
“Now, [Pulisic] is obviously the star. He is a difference maker when we’re talking about scoring goals, winning games, advancing to that next stage. But Weston kind of brings this whole group together.”
Antonee Robinson (Fulham) has developed into one of the Premier League’s best attacking full-backs. His overlapping runs down the left flank are a major part of the American game plan, and then there was this thunderbastard of a goal against Germany:
What Australia should know
The United States will enjoy their home-ground advantage with packed stadiums, but it can be a double-edged sword. The media attention and pressure on them will be intense and they’ll have to ride that in what should be an entertaining and close-fought group.
Pochettino’s team is perhaps the most athletic side in Group D and their pressing, pace and ability to transition quickly could be hard for the Socceroos to handle. Australia played against the US in October for a 2-1 loss, the first defeat of Tony Popovic’s tenure.
Defensive consistency remains a concern for the US. Recent warm-up matches have highlighted vulnerabilities when opponents break through the press or force errors in possession, and they were exposed by Sadio Mané against Senegal.
They were caught cold in the centre of defence against Germany, conceding an early set-piece goal to a Kai Havertz header. The absence of star defender Chris Richards is a frustration to Pochettino, who named the injured Crystal Palace centre-back in his squad despite him carrying an injury.
What’s being said about them
Writing for ESPN after a 3-2 win over Senegal recently, Jeff Carlisle noted that concerns around the US backline had been building since the March international window.
“The US defence has caused considerable worry in the run-up to the World Cup,” Carlisle wrote.
Pochettino named Crystal Palace centre-back Chris Richards despite an injury, and he was missed in the 2-1 defeat by Germany on the weekend.
“One huge deficit on the pitch remains: the centre-back position,” wrote Sophie Vesely for Sports Illustrated. “Without the Crystal Palace star commanding the backline, there is cause for concern.”
NBC Sports writer Nicholas Mendola believes the team should justify their favouritism.
“Expectations are high — reasonably so,” Mendola wrote. “Oddsmakers have the Americans as heavy favorites versus Paraguay and Australia and very mild favorites against Türkiye in their third game. The US are favoured over Türkiye to win the group and each of Uruguay, Croatia, Senegal, Switzerland and Mexico are longer shots to pull off a miracle tournament win.
“There are many reasons for the USMNT and its supporters to dream of what’s possible over the next month-plus of soccer. And those dreams don’t need to look far for their fuel.
“Leave the legacy worries for the history books. As for the present, the squad has their best chance ever to make a deep World Cup run. That’s not debatable, nor will the ‘Golden Generation’ tag if they deliver that marriage of guts and goals in primetime.”
The verdict
The Americans deserve their favourites tag, but things could unravel quickly if they get off to a losing start against Paraguay.
TURKIYE
The coach: Vincenzo Montella
Türkiye’s return to the World Cup after a 24-year absence owes much to Vincenzo Montella. The former Italian international has transformed a talented but inconsistent side into one of Europe’s most exciting emerging teams. More importantly, he has created a clear identity built around technical quality, youth and attacking football.
After a rocky start, Montella has been able to rally a fiery football country behind him and his players, with support strengthened by their stirring playoff win in Kosovo.
Nicknamed L’Aeroplanino (the “Little Airplane”) because of his small stature and his signature goal celebration as a player, he has embraced the role and brought harmony to a squad that has had issues with personality clashes in the past.
“Turkish culture is very close to that of the place where I spent my childhood. I was born and raised near Naples,” says Montella.
He speaks the language – well, not just the language but also the intent of the Turkish language.
“As I speak these words, which are very important to me and come from my heart, my first thought is: our footballers are real men,” Montella told a news conference before the playoff win.
“I took over as head coach during a very difficult period… My players have supported me. They have always been a fighting group.
“They know that it’s not just their own names written on their backs. It’s the names of millions of Turkish people and children.”
Montella is closing in on three years in charge and is the first foreign boss to take Türkiye to back-to-back major tournaments.
His side reached the quarter-finals at Euro 2024 and he will celebrate his 52nd birthday just two days before Türkiye’s second Group D match against Paraguay.
The formation
Türkiye generally operate in a 4-2-3-1, but Montella allows significant freedom to his attacking players. The front four constantly interchange positions, creating movement and unpredictability. The emphasis is on quick passing, technical excellence – which they have in abundance up top – and exploiting space between opposition defensive lines.
The star players
Arda Güler (Real Madrid) is the headline act. Still only 21, the playmaker has already established himself at Real Madrid. He had a difficult end to the La Liga season as injury looked as if it might hamper his World Cup, but a stellar performance in Türkiye’s 2-1 defeat of Venezuela on Sunday has unleashed a sense of relief and joy for his nation.
The left-footer is a beautiful technician and provided two assists in their final game before facing the Socceroos on June 14 (2pm AEST).
“We are very excited for the World Cup. I wasn’t even born when we last went to the World Cup,” he told reporters after the win.
“We heard about it from our fathers and older brothers. We worked very hard to qualify for the Cup. We want to show that we didn’t come here for nothing.
“God willing, we will do our best. I can’t say we are the favourites, we respect all our opponents, but we have no reservations about anyone.”
Kenan Yıldız (Juventus) is not far behind Güler, if at all. He is no certainty to face the Socceroos due to an injury that impacted the final weeks of Serie A, but should play some role in the group games.
Legendary national team coach Fatih Terim made it clear what he thought of the pair in an interview this week.
“They are the main reason why Türkiye is seen as one of the most promising teams in the World Cup,” Terim said.
“Kenan wears the number 10 shirt for Juventus and is the player the club will build its future upon.
“Arda has been at Real Madrid for three seasons. I’m very happy for him; playing for a club like Real Madrid is a source of pride in itself, but establishing yourself there is an even greater achievement. And he is achieving that.
“Both are extraordinary talents. In the future they could compete with each other for the Ballon d’Or and achieve great success for their countries.”
Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter Milan) remains the experienced leader but is also under an injury cloud. The 32-year-old has been bothered by a calf injury and hasn’t played since April 17. The captain is one of the game’s elite dead-ball specialists and provides calm amid the excitement of Türkiye’s younger stars.
“He’s an extraordinary footballer and a true leader,” said Terim. “We were together when he made his debut for the national team, and today he’s played over 100 matches for his country. He’s constantly improved over the years. Now he’s not just a very good footballer, but also a point of reference who guides the team and takes on great responsibilities. He’s an icon for both Inter and our national team.”
Ferdi Kadioglu (Brighton) has become a standout Premier League performer, featuring marauding runs from left-back, and was named the club’s player of the season this year.
He has been hampered by injury ahead of the Socceroos clash, but the team is hopeful he will take his place against Australia on Friday.
What Australia should know
The Socceroos will have been burning the midnight oil trying to work out how to quell the attacking talents of Güler and Yıldız, and the latter’s combination with Kadioglu will be an incredibly tough assignment for Jacob Italiano on the right of Australia’s defence.
The Turks enter the tournament with enormous momentum after finally ending a 24-year World Cup drought. Confidence is high and expectations are growing, although injuries remain a concern.
The Crescent Stars lost one game in their qualifying campaign – against European champions Spain – and had 13 points from 18 available.
They survived playoffs against Romania and Kosovo 1-0 away, leading Montella to say: “I wouldn’t trade these players for anyone.”
If there is an obvious weakness, it’s up front where they don’t have a top-class striker, although Kerem Akturkoglu and Baris Alper Yilmaz both showed good form in the Turkish domestic league and Galatasaray’s Yunus Akgün came up with the winner against Venezuela.
Irankunda booked after Xhaka incident | 00:44
What’s being said about them
“It looks like it’s going to cause a stir at the World Cup,” wrote Spanish outlet AS after their come-from-behind defeat of Venezuela.
“Türkiye gained an advantage that fuelled their hopes of becoming one of the surprise teams at the World Cup.”
Terim says: “Türkiye needs the World Cup, but the World Cup also needs Türkiye. Because our country doesn’t just participate in major tournaments; it experiences them and adds colour to them. With its fans, energy and emotion, it always leaves its mark.”
The verdict
Türkiye are the dark horse of Group D and perhaps the tournament, if they can keep their three world-class players fit and on the field. The USA might be betting favourites, but it’s not a stretch to see Türkiye win all three matches, especially if the huge US diaspora pushes them on a wave of emotion.
PARAGUAY
The coach: Gustavo Alfaro
The 63-year-old veteran Argentine, who led Ecuador to the finals in 2022, has transformed Paraguay from World Cup outsiders into qualifiers through organisation, discipline and belief.
When he joined in August 2024, he was adamant: “Paraguayan DNA, intensity and clean sheets, that’s what will take us to the World Cup,” and then delivered wins against Brazil and Argentina in qualifying.
Boasting two of the best nicknames at the tournament – in his youth he was known as “Lettuce” and now the Paraguayan media have dubbed him the “Utopia Hunter” – he endeared himself to fans by starting the process of becoming a permanent resident of the country this year.
His teams are rarely spectacular, but they are dogged and difficult to beat.
Most of the flair comes from his witty tongue, such as this all-time quote after he led Costa Rica – his wedge job between World Cups – to a 0-0 draw with mighty Brazil (spoiler alert!).
“We were Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense,” he said. “The only one who didn’t know he was dead was him. They gave us up for dead before the movie even started.”
He’ll be sensing similar ahead of this tournament.
The formation
Paraguay typically play 4-4-2 with an occasional switch to 4-2-3-1, with defensive structure prioritised over attacking flair. Alfaro’s side are compact, disciplined and patient, comfortable without possession and often look to punish mistakes through set-pieces and counterattacks.
The star players
Julio Enciso (Strasbourg) is Paraguay’s game-breaker, but there’s no guarantee he will play any role in the tournament, having left the final friendly in tears on a stretcher. Worst fears of a long-term knee injury appear to be unfounded, though, and he travelled to the US.
News outlet D10 reported the player nicknamed “The Jewel” “appeared to be in good spirits and optimistic about his recovery. Paraguay’s medical department is closely monitoring the player’s progress as he attempts to recover in time for the third group-stage match against Australia.”
Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras) is the captain and defensive cornerstone and, at 33, remains one of South America’s most respected centre-backs. His leadership underpins everything Paraguay do.
“We’ve come with the hope of having a good World Cup. That’s the group’s goal, to take Paraguay as far as possible,” Gomez said.
“It’s a tough, evenly matched group, but we’ll do everything we can to qualify.”
Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United) remains one of the squad’s most recognisable figures and one of four MLS players on the Paraguay roster, alongside club teammate Matías Galarza, Vancouver Whitecaps FC midfielder Andrés Cubas and Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda.
He’s an icon at his MLS club and is now in his second stint as captain, having spent seven seasons in the Premier League with Newcastle United, where he was an exciting if inconsistent performer.
At 32, he’s lost some of his pace, but he remains a good outlet when Paraguay break forward.
Diego Gómez (Brighton) has emerged as one of the country’s most promising midfielders and his Premier League quality will be a major asset. He brings energy, technical quality and the ability to carry the ball through midfield.
There were huge sighs of relief after he went down with what looked like a serious knee injury a month from the end of the EPL season, only to receive promising news.
“I thought the worst, but thankfully it was not a serious injury,” he said. “Now I’m recovering and thinking about being 100 percent fit for the World Cup. When the injury occurred my first thought was the World Cup. I thought that I was going to miss the World Cup.”
Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese) carries much of the goalscoring responsibility. Paraguay do not create chances in huge volumes, making his finishing particularly important.
He hit the headlines in a qualifier for this tournament when he appeared to spit in the direction of Argentine superstar Lionel Messi, whose response was withering.
“My team-mates told me about it in the locker room. It is better to leave the issue alone,” said Messi.
“I don’t know who this guy is and I don’t want to give him importance either, because if he gets that he’s going to go out and talk everywhere and he becomes known.”
What Australia should know
Under Alfaro, Paraguay are likely to be the hardest team in the group to break down. Defensive organisation is their foundation and they rarely allow opponents easy opportunities.
It’s best summed up by a quote the silver-tongued coach poached from former basketball star Pat Riley to explain his process: “If I want to build an offensive team, the first thing I have to do is work on defensive discipline, otherwise my ass is going to be out of here.”
La Albirroja scored at a rate of just 0.78 goals per game in qualifying, the lowest average of any side in the finals, and failed to score in half their games. They did, however, beat world champions Argentina 2-1 in a November 2024 qualifier, and Brazil a month earlier.
South American qualifying is a brutal environment and Paraguay emerged from it stronger and more resilient than many expected. They will not be intimidated by any opponent, and they have passion in abundance, while being cheered on by a fanatical media.
Yengi on debut goal vs. Switzerland | 00:53
What’s being said about them
“Paraguay’s presence at this World Cup is a minor miracle,” wrote Tom McCoy of the BBC.
“The landlocked country, which has the second-smallest population of any Conmebol nation, looked set for another miserable qualifying campaign after scoring just once in their opening six games.
“But Gustavo Alfaro’s appointment as coach galvanised them. La Albirroja lost only one of their remaining 12 qualifiers to reach a first World Cup since 2010.
“The turnaround did not require a dramatic overhaul of personnel or tactics. Throughout qualifying they were content to cede possession and play on the break.”
On Tuesday, Alfaro told ESPN of his hopes for the next few weeks.
“We know we have very important challenges ahead of us, that there are complexities from a footballing perspective, but we also have very strong hopes of having the kind of World Cup that Paraguay expects and that we ourselves hope to have,” Alfaro said.
“There is a lot of love, a lot of genuine emotion being shared. The country has connected very strongly with the national team and people identify with it a great deal.
“For us it is a wonderful emotion, for the whole country. After 16 years waiting for this chance, this opportunity, to have the privilege of playing in a World Cup again and making our debut against one of the hosts is something very special. It creates a great sense of excitement for us.”
The verdict
Paraguay may not attract the headlines of the United States or Türkiye, but they could be Australia’s most awkward opponent. They average 37 percent possession, but matches against Alfaro’s side are never comfortable. The Socceroos could face them with progression to the next round on the line for both teams. That would be a brutal battle.
