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Relegation from the Premier League has never been so financially disastrous and reputationally damaging, meaning the eight clubs currently embroiled in the fight to survive are becoming increasingly desperate – but which of them has the most difficult fixtures between now and the end of March?
There are just six points between Southampton in last place and Nottingham Forest in 13th, as each side involved in the relegation dogfight scrambles to pick up the points needed for safety.
The Saints, Sean Dyche’s Everton and Bournemouth are currently in the drop zone, but all three will have identified fixtures between now and the next international break in March where three points must be achieved.
And the sides hovering nervously above them – including Wolves, West Ham, Leeds, Leicester and Forest – won’t be taking the current standings for granted. All five have the quality to string a number of wins together, but consistency has eluded them throughout 2022-23.
Another factor worth considering are the number of extra cup games scheduled for some sides. Four of the eight relegation candidates will play a midweek FA Cup match in March, while West Ham have an extra two European games on top of those.
There’ll plenty of twists and turns before the worst game of musical chairs stops in May, so we’ve decided to crunch the numbers and determine which sides have the most difficult set of upcoming fixtures.
League leaders Arsenal were given a single point, while Southampton were awarded 20. The total was divided by the number of games and makes better reading for Southampton than Bournemouth and the Hammers…
Note: all fixtures in cup competitions (both domestic and continental) are listed in italics. The FA Cup opponents for Leeds, Leicester and Southampton are currently undecided, as are West Ham’s opponents in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
20. Southampton – 15 points
04/02 – Brentford (A)
11/02 – Wolves (H)
18/02 – Chelsea (A)
25/02 – Leeds (H)
01/03 – FA Cup Fifth Round (H)
04/03 – Leicester (H)
11/03 – Manchester United (A)
18/03 – Tottenham (H)
Average league position of opponents: 10.43
19. Everton – 15 points
04/02 – Arsenal (H)
13/02 – Liverpool (A)
18/02 – Leeds (H)
25/02 – Aston Villa (H)
05/03 – Nottingham Forest (A)
11/03 – Brentford (H)
18/03 – Chelsea (A)
Average league position of opponents: 9.57
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18. Bournemouth – 17 points
04/02 – Brighton (A)
11/02 – Newcastle (H)
18/02 – Wolves (A)
25/02 – Manchester City (H)
04/03 – Arsenal (A)
11/03 – Liverpool (H)
18/03 – Aston Villa (A)
Average league position of opponents: 7.0
17. Wolves – 17 points
04/02 – Liverpool (H)
11/02 – Southampton (A)
18/02 – Bournemouth (H)
24/02 – Fulham (A)
04/03 – Tottenham (H)
12/03 – Newcastle (A)
18/03 – Leeds (H)
Average league position of opponents: 11.0
16. West Ham United – 18 points
04/02 – Newcastle (A)
11/02 – Chelsea (H)
19/02 – Tottenham (A)
25/02 – Nottingham Forest (H)
01/03 – Manchester United (A)
04/03 – Brighton (A)
09/03 – Europa Conference last 16 (A)
12/03 – Aston Villa (H)
16/03 – Europa Conference League last 16 (H)
19/03 – Manchester City (A)
Average league position of opponents: 7.14
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15. Leeds United – 18 points
05/02 – Nottingham Forest (A)
08/02 – Manchester United (A)
12/02 – Manchester United (H)
18/02 – Everton (A)
25/02 – Southampton (H)
01/03 – FA Cup Fifth Round (A)
04/03 – Chelsea (A)
11/03 – Brighton (H)
18/03 – Wolves (A)
Average league position of opponents: 11.63
14. Leicester City – 18 points
04/02 – Aston Villa (A)
11/02 – Tottenham (H)
19/02 – Manchester United (A)
25/02 – Arsenal (H)
01/03 – FA Cup Fifth Round (H)
04/03 – Southampton (A)
12/03 – Chelsea (H)
19/03 – Brentford (A)
Average league position of opponents: 8.43
13. Nottingham Forest – 21 points
05/02 – Leeds (H)
11/02 – Fulham (A)
18/02 – Manchester City (H)
25/02 – West Ham (A)
04/03 – Everton (H)
12/03 – Tottenham (A)
17/03 – Newcastle (H)
Average league position of opponents: 9.57
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