Arsenal and Manchester City might be way out in front and duking it out for the Premier League title but as many as seven other sides can hope to secure a top-four finish. Newcastle United’s win over Manchester United on Sunday has put them in a current UEFA Champions League qualification spot.
Brighton and Hove Albion and the Red Devils remain in contention on that front with the Seagulls holding two potentially crucial games in hand over most positional rivals. With another midweek slate approaching, outsiders Brentford, Liverpool, and even Aston Villa could yet come into the mix.
We take a look at how the candidates are shaping up and estimate their chances of finishing in UCL spots:
Newcastle United, 3rd place (50 pts)
Eddie Howe’s men boosted their chances significantly with their win over Manchester United and the Magpies have been fairly well positioned in and around the top four for much of the season. With an Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur doubleheader coming up and Arsenal as well as Chelsea, the Spurs and Gunners games at home could be key to Newcastle’s chances which currently look favorable.
Chances of top four finish: 6/10
Manchester United, 5th place (50 pts)
Erik ten Hag’s side took a blow against Newcastle United and any title hopes that they had at Old Trafford have now been truly extinguished for this campaign. However, UEFA Europa League and FA Cup glory could add to their EFL Cup title already secured against the Magpies. A run against Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, and Brighton and Hove Albion could be pivotal given that the Seagulls are not only their FA Cup semifinal opponents but also have a game in hand that could cut the gap between the two to four points.
Chances of top four finish: 5/10
Tottenham Hotspur, 4th place (50pts)
Things could be clearer after Monday’s clash with relegation-threatened Everton but Antonio Conte’s departure could send this one of two ways. Spurs will either respond well without the Italian and stay in the hunt or they will flounder until a decision on their new manager is made which could cost them in the race for Champions League qualification. Tottenham probably have the best fixture list given that they play pretty much all of their top-four rivals but trips to Newcastle United, Liverpool, and Aston Villa could make things tricky. That said, Newcastle and Manchester United both have two games in hand on them.
Chances of top four finish: 4/10
Brighton and Hove Albion, 6th place (43pts)
Arguably the dark horses for either third or fourth spot, Roberto De Zerbi’s men have two games in hand over many of their rivals and also have an FA Cup semifinal to look forward to against Manchester United. The shake-up for Champions League places will look clearer once everybody has played the same number of games but do not be surprised to see Brighton sitting pretty once that happens and their final day trip to Aston Villa could have plenty riding on it.
Chances of top four finish: 5/10
Brentford, 7th place (43pts)
Starting to get into outsider territory now and Thomas Frank’s side are perched six points or so adrift of Europe with no games on hand over the teams immediately around them. Manchester United, Newcastle United, and Aston Villa are tough games in their next four outings while Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City as their two final games are not ideal. That said, the Bees are certainly in the shakeup for a UCL spot.
Chances of top four finish: 3/10
Liverpool, 8th place (42pts)
Slightly better off than Brentford by virtue of their game in hand is Jurgen Klopp’s outfit which is left fighting exclusively for a top-four place now. The Reds certainly have one of the best squads outside of the current Champions League places on paper but they have been struggling all season. An Anfield tripleheader against Tottenham Hotspur, Fulham, and Brentford leading into May could go a long way toward deciding the outcome of their campaign.
Chances of top four finish: 4/10
Aston Villa, 9th place (41pts)
Making a surprise surge into contention is Unai Emery’s team which is one of the most in-form sides in the Premier League at present. The Villans are a major long shot at present but four wins from their last five is impressive and a strong April could set the Birmingham-based club up for a late tilt at Europe which was not expected when Steven Gerrard left the club back in October. Chelsea parted ways with Graham Potter after Villa knocked them into the bottom half of the table so keep an eye on Emery’s troops in the Newcastle United and Brentford doubleheader to see if they are really in with a shout at all.
Chances of top four finish: 2/10