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It should be another epic Madrid Derby on Saturday as Real Madrid host Atletico Madrid. Real Madrid (16-3-3) come in a off an emphatic 5-2 victory against Liverpool in a Tuesday Champions League match. Los Blancos defeated Osasuna 2-0 last Saturday in league play and sit second in La Liga’s table as they seek back-to-back titles. They are eight points behind leader Barcelona entering the matchweek. Atletico Madrid (12-5-5) are 10 points behind Real but sit fourth in La Liga after a 1-0 victory against Athletic Bilbao last Sunday. Real Madrid defeated Los Rojiblancos 3-1 in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals a month ago and prevailed 2-1 in the first league meeting back in September.
Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET at Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain. Caesars Sportsbook lists Real as -130 favorites (risk $130 to win $100) in its latest Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds. Atletico are +380 underdogs, a draw is priced at +245 and the over/under for total match goals is set at 2.5. Before making any Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid picks, you need to check out the Spanish La Liga predictions and best bets from proven soccer insider Martin Green.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.
Green is on a 23-11 run and is up 11.55 units on his last 34 soccer picks, which is a profit of well over $1,100 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Green has broken down the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid matchup from all sides. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid:
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid spread: Real -0.5 (-125)
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid over/under: 2.5 goals
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid money line: Real -130, Atletico +380, Draw +245
- RMA: Los Blancos have a 21-6 advantage in goals over their past nine games
- ATM: Los Rojiblancos have allowed more than one goal once in their past 15
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back Real Madrid
Los Blancos are almost certain to control the tempo, as they did in the Copa del Rey match. They held the ball for 61% of that game and had a 23-12 advantage in shots. Real lead the league in goals (46) and shots (372) and have allowed the third-fewest attempts on target. They are second in La Liga in possession at more than 59%, and Atletico are under 51%. Los Blancos are 4-1-1 in the past six matchups and have not lost to their rivals in league play at Bernabeu since 2016 (3-3-0). They are 6-7-1 in the 14 meetings since that 1-0 home loss.
The hosts got two goals apiece from Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior in the rout at Anfield on Tuesday, and the duo is one of the world’s best. Both scored in extra time in the Copa del Rey meeting after regulation ended 1-1. Benzema has missed nine games because of injuries but has nine goals in nine overall matches in 2023. The Frenchman has 11 goals in 13 league matches, while Vincius and Federico Valverde have seven apiece.
Why you should back Atletico Madrid
Los Rojiblancos have been resting for this one for almost a week while Real were traveling to Liverpool for their midweek match. The visitors also have been excellent on the back line, so they won’t be spun around by the midfield like Liverpool were. Atletico have conceded 17 goals in their 22 matches, tied for second-fewest in La Liga. Only seven of those goals were allowed in their road matches, and they are plus-8 in goal differential away from home. They are 7-2-2 in road matches. They also have allowed the second-fewest shots on target in the league (63).
Opponents are putting 25.6% of attempts on target, the stingiest mark in the league. On the other hand, Atletico don’t take a ton of shots, but they hit the target. They are putting 35.6% on net, fifth-best in La Liga. Atletico also don’t get a ton of goals, but Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann are proven scorers and have seven apiece. Los Rojiblancos will make Real work for their chances and try to frustrate them. The visitors are second in the league in tackles (413) and first in tackles won (253).
How to make Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid picks
Green has taken a deep dive into the Milan Derby and looked at it from every angle. He is leaning Under the goal total and provides two confident best bets, including one with a significant plus-money payout, and his full breakdown of this Madrid Derby. He’s only sharing those picks here.
So, who wins Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $1,100 for $100 bettors on his recent soccer picks, and find out.
