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The Socceroos’ journey to the 2026 World Cup began this month with two wins over Bangladesh and Palestine.
While the outcome was the same in both games – a valuable three points secured in the lengthy qualification journey – the matches themselves were starkly different. It began about as well as Socceroos’ fans could have hoped with a 7-0 thumping on home soil, but was followed by a tense 1-0 win where Australia performed well below their best.
Now the road to 2026 is put on hold for Graham Arnold and his Socceroos as attention turns to a more pressing concern: January’s Asian Cup in Qatar.
It is a rare chance for major silverware for the Socceroos, who have won the competition just once before (in 2015 in Australia).
And on the back of a best-ever World Cup performance in 2022 – also in Qatar – expectations are understandably high for Australia.
But much has changed for the Socceroos in the 12 months since that World Cup began, and Arnold now faces a tricky balancing act between short-term trophy-hunting and the long-term development of his squad with 2026 on the horizon.
With a host of young talents on the rise, there will be plenty of difficult selection decisions to make – but the tournament provides a key opportunity for Arnold’s Socceroos to take a major step forward.
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WHY THE TIMING IS ALL WRONG
The tournament itself comes at an awkward and inopportune time for Australia. It was scheduled to be held in June of this year, only for China to withdraw from hosting in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Qatar picked up the tournament but, like the World Cup, weather conditions forced a shift from mid-year to the cooler months.
Had it been held in the middle of 2023 as initially planned, Arnold’s approach would probably have been more straightforward: the ageing core of the squad used throughout the previous World Cup cycle could push through for one last title tilt.
After the Asian Cup, Arnold could have focused fully on the next generation and his plans to rebuild with ’26 in mind.
Instead, Arnold has been forced to delay the full-scale overhaul of the roster until after this cup – given the established core of stalwarts provide the best chance of winning the tournament. They are, particularly in the wake of Qatar 2022, battle-hardened and tournament ready.
The next generation are not. Not quite yet, anyway.
But on the road to 2026 and the big dance, the Asian Cup is the single biggest opportunity for the next generation to experience elite tournament football – to gel as a unit and experience the unique pressure of playing repeated games on short turnarounds on the other side of the world.
It is just another factor in the difficult decisions that face Arnold in the months ahead.
The core question is simple: should he prioritise winning the cup or blooding the next generation?
The answer will be anything but simple.
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So far, Arnold has unleashed plenty of young guns this year, thanks to a rare bevy of friendlies including tough tests against top opposition like world champions Argentina, England, and Mexico.
Mixing youth with experience has not been such a problem in this environment – the youngsters are allowed to learn the standards from the older generation and develop in that environment, rather than battle against the likes of Lionel Messi without the guidance of those stalwarts who have been there, done that.
But in prioritising the stability (and win-now readiness) of the current team rather than immediately committing to a long-term rebuild has meant that – including in the two recent World Cup qualifiers – some rookies have been kept on the outer rather than handed valuable match minutes.
Think of Jordan Bos playing against Bangladesh before being benched against Palestine in favour of the veteran Aziz Behich.
But balancing youth and experience while rebuilding the team is never an easy proposition – and the mix hasn’t always been right. It’s something that Graham Arnold acknowledged after the clash with Mexico in September where the Socceroos gave up a two-goal lead with some poor errors.
In that match, a series of second-half substitutes tilted the balance too much towards inexperienced youngsters, who struggled under the pressure of a high-octane opponent roared on by partisan Mexican fans.
Arnold recently told the Herald Sun: “It’s crucial you have the blend right – It’s OK to have a lot of young players, but you need senior players and good leaders around them.
“Against Mexico, you look at the players I had on the field in the last 10 minutes when we folded a bit, they were all kids … they didn’t deal with the pressure of 75,000 Mexicans in the stands going crazy.”
Call it a warning on the risks of youth, or call it a valuable learning experience – for both Arnold and the young players involved in that draw.
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WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME?
The last edition of the Asian Cup was also a brutal learning curve for the manager and the team.
In 2019 in the UAE, Australia were the defending champions and the second-highest ranked team in the competition.
But it came just months after Arnold took over the Socceroos job, and he inherited a team very much experiencing a generational change. Tim Cahill and Mile Jedinak had retired after the 2018 World Cup, leaving Arnold with a new-look team where 11 of 23 players had fewer than ten caps entering the tournament. Arnold’s much-changed team laboured from the start.
They squeaked out of the group thanks to a 93rd minute goal to Tom Rogic, before overcoming Uzbekistan on penalties in the Round of 16 following a goalless draw. A difficult tournament came to an end at the quarterfinal stage in a 1-0 defeat to hosts UAE.
This time around, the likes of Aaron Mooy and Tom Rogic have retired. Mat Leckie hasn’t featured in the A-League Men’s campaign yet after a September injury, while Riley McGree has been injured since early October and won’t return to club action for some weeks yet. Milos Degenek and Trent Sainsbury have also fallen out of favour as new defenders rise through the ranks.
These are just a handful of the difficult choices that confronting Arnold. Should he opt for experience and solidity, or youthful exuberance and potential, in other words Aziz Behich or Jordy Bos?
In some cases (particularly Connor Metcalfe) the performances from young guns have been so impressive that they simply demand selection.
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WHY THINGS ARE EASIER FOR THE YOUNG GUNS NOW
But there is one key reason why backing the youth is not so risky as it was in 2019. Arnold has now managed more (A-International) games than any other Socceroos manager. He has been in charge for five years and has successfully embedded his tactical system not just at the senior international level but also at the Under-23’s or Olyroos, who he took charge of in both qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics and in that tournament proper.
It meant that many youngsters entered the Socceroos set-up already understanding the system and their individual role, making it easier to slot into the squad successfully. Combine that with the difficulty of opponents that the youngsters faced in friendlies this calendar year, and there’s no doubt that the rookies have been forged in fire – and are more capable of stepping up to the difficulties of tournament football.
Perhaps that gives Arnold a better opportunity than ever to roll the dice on youth, even if that comes with the risk of repeating the sort of collapse that occurred against Mexico.
But after all, on the road to 2026 there will be no better teacher in the demands of tournament football on the road than this Asian Cup, where Australia’s path to glory includes likely knockout matches with Saudi Arabia then Japan.
Arnold has enough credit in the bank from the 2022 World Cup – and a long-term contract to boot – that his future is secure even if things go sour at this tournament.
That won’t mean he won’t go for gold. But perhaps that means he can trust the next generation to do the job – and bet all his chips on building for 2026.
