The Socceroos are most likely to draw either a South American giant or one of the host nations in their 2026 FIFA World Cup group, an analysis has revealed.
The group stage draw is just days away – from 4am AEDT on Saturday December 6, with live coverage on Foxsports.com.au – where Australia is hoping to gain a comfortable run at the first 48-team tournament, after being placed in Pot 2 thanks to some favourable qualifying results.
Despite the increased size of the tournament there have never been more restrictions on how and where teams can be drawn for the groups, in an attempt to equalise the tournament.
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Confederation restrictions, where teams cannot be drawn against local rivals (ie Australia cannot be grouped with an Asian nation) are relatively common but other rules include:
– Each group must have one, but no more than two, UEFA (European) teams;
– The four highest-ranked teams (Spain, Argentina, France and England) will be separated to occupy separate quarters of the playoff bracket, assuming they win their groups, while Spain and Argentina must also be in different halves;
– The quarters are Groups E, F and I, Groups G and H, Groups C and L, and Groups J and K. This means for example that Spain can’t be in Group F if Argentina is in Group E.
The rules around separating the top four teams aren’t too relevant to the Socceroos, and it’s assumed behind the scenes FIFA will be running an algorithm to ensure whatever is drawn on stage will complete a legal draw, but it’s an added level of complexity.
When all of these rules are taken into account, simulations of the World Cup draw can be completed revealing the most likely scenarios, and Australia has slightly better odds of drawing some teams over others.
The best of these simulations, by Reddit user smala017, shows that Australia is most likely to draw Argentina or Brazil (11% chance each) out of Pot 1, followed by Canada, Mexico or the USA (just above 9% chance each).
In all, there is about a 50-50 split between the chances of Australia drawing one of those five nations, or one of the seven European teams in Pot 1 – Spain, France, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.
Sure, it’s a coin flip, but a weighted one.
Out of Pot 3, it’s most likely Australia draws South American side Paraguay (14%) with the other eight options all around 10-11% – though that 14% turns to 0% if the Socceroos draw Brazil or Argentina first.
And in Pot 4, there’s just under a 50% chance Australia is drawn with a UEFA playoff team, which could mean facing Italy, Denmark or Turkiye.
The most likely group would therefore be something like Argentina, South Africa and a UEFA playoff team (let’s go with… Ireland!).
SOCCEROOS’ CHANCES OF DRAWING EACH TEAM IN THEIR WORLD CUP GROUP
Pot 1
Argentina or Brazil: 11%
Canada; Mexico or USA: 9%
Spain, France, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium or Germany: 7%
Pot 3
Paraguay: 14%
Norway, Scotland, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire or South Africa: 11%
Panama: 10%
Uzbekistan, Qatar or Saudi Arabia: 0%
Pot 4
UEFA Playoff Team 1 (Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland), UEFA Playoff Team 2 (Denmark, Czechia, Ireland or North Macedonia), UEFA Playoff Team 3 (Turkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo or Romania), UEFA Playoff Team 4 (Ukraine, Poland, Albania or Sweden): 12%
Curacao, Haiti, Cabo Verde or Ghana: 9%
New Zealand or Interconfederation Playoff Team 1 (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica): 8%
Jordan or Interconfederation Playoff Team 2 (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname): 0%
Note: All percentages are rounded and approximate, and each pot may not total 100. Numbers via Reddit user smala017
You might look at this and think Australia’s most likely group therefore includes Argentina or Brazil, Paraguay and a UEFA qualifier, but that’s impossible because of confederation restrictions.
Paraguay is Australia’s most likely groupmate because of how the South American restrictions impact the first two pots. Let’s play this out…
– The Pot 1 teams are drawn, with Argentina and Brazil in separate groups;
– The Pot 2 teams are drawn next. South American teams Colombia, Uruguay and Ecuador cannot share a group with Argentina or Brazil, meaning there are only nine possible teams for Argentina and Brazil’s groups. This is where Australia’s 11% chance comes from;
– However if Australia does not get drawn in Argentina or Brazil’s group, by the time Pot 3 is drawn, there are now just seven groups without a South American team where Paraguay can legally be drawn into. One of those would include Australia.
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Meanwhile it’s most likely Australia draws a UEFA Playoff team for similar reasons.
Once we get to the drawing of Pot 4, there will be heavy restrictions on where teams need to be placed.
For example, the Interconfederation Playoff Path 2 team (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname) must be placed in a group with two European teams and one African team due to confederation ties – Iraq can’t be with an Asian team, Bolivia can’t be with a South American team, and Suriname can’t be with a North/Central American team, and the entire playoff path is being treated during the draw as if it has all three restrictions.
Because of the requirement that each group must have one European team, when the Pot 4 draw begins, there will be several groups where those UEFA playoff sides will be the only options.
Therefore if Australia drew Brazil, Argentina or one of the North American host nations out of Pot 1, there’s a very good chance their group will require a UEFA team from Pot 4.
If Australia draws a European team out of Pot 1 instead, there will be no such requirement, and the odds of facing a Pot 4 UEFA team will go down because of the other groups that require one.
That’s exactly what happens in our mock World Cup draw below, where the Socceroos are placed with Spain and Paraguay, but then get the Interconfederation Playoff 1 team (most likely to be DR Congo) out of Pot 4.
This would be a potentially tricky group with the clash against Paraguay likely to decide second place.
On the plus side, the Socceroos have never lost to Paraguay, with three draws and two wins (2000, 2010) across five friendlies.
FOX SPORTS’ SIMULATED WORLD CUP DRAW
via WC2026.app
Group A: Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Ghana
Group B: Canada, Romania, Algeria, Iran
Group C: Portugal, Senegal, Haiti, Qatar
Group D: USA, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Sweden
Group E: France, Curacao, Scotland, Colombia
Group F: Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Cote d’Ivoire
Group G: Netherlands, Panama, Austria, Cabo Verde
Group H: Spain, DR Congo, Paraguay, Australia
Group I: Belgium, Croatia, Iraq, South Africa
Group J: Brazil, Uzbekistan, Morocco, Italy
Group K: England, Jordan, Tunisia, Uruguay
Group L: Argentina, South Korea, Ireland, Egypt
Simulated Group H results
Spain 4-0 DR Congo at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Paraguay 1-5 Australia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Spain 2-0 Paraguay at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Australia 5-0 DR Congo at Mercedes Benz-Stadium, Atlanta
Australia 1-1 Spain at NRG Stadium, Houston
DR Congo 0-0 Paraguay at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Simulated Australia knockout stage
Round of 32
Australia (Group H winner) 0-4 Brazil (Group J runner-up) at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
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We’re not quite sure about a simulation that imagines the Socceroos scoring five goals in a World Cup group stage game twice – though they did it against Indonesia, Palestine and Lebanon in qualifying – but let’s run with it!
Having simulated the draw plenty of times using WC2026.app, it appears it’ll only take three points and an OK goal difference to get out of the group stage as one of the best third-place finishers.
In the above simulation, four third-placers finished with four points (one win and one draw) while the next seven third-placers finished with three points (one win or three draws). Algeria escaped its group with three points and a -5 goal difference.
This suggests that Australia really only needs to win one game against the lowest-ranked team in its group, and to avoid any massive defeats, to qualify for the knockout stage.
That’s a pretty critical change in the minimum requirement to make it out of a World Cup group. For comparison, multiple teams failed to escape the group stage at the 2022 World Cup with four points and a positive goal difference, including Germany.
Our simulated tournament is a rollercoaster. It sees the Socceroos shockingly win their group via goal difference over Spain – having clinched a top-two finish before the final matchday by smashing DR Congo and Paraguay.
Unfortunately, the Socceroos’ Group H is tied with the group of death (Group J) in the knockout bracket, and after Brazil is pipped for first place by Morocco the South American powerhouse smashes Australia in their round of 32 meeting.
Brazil then goes on to beat Morocco in our simulated World Cup final, with the most notable knockout stage runs coming from Algeria (quarter-finalist after beating Ecuador and Netherlands) and Canada (quarter-finalist after beating Cote d’Ivoire and England).
2026 FIFA WORLD CUP POTS
Each group will contain one nation from each pot
Pot 1: Canada (host), Mexico (host), USA (host), Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany
Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Australia
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan*, Qatar*, Saudi Arabia*, South Africa
Pot 4: Jordan*, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, UEFA Playoff Team 1 (Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern Ireland), UEFA Playoff Team 2 (Denmark, Czechia, Ireland or North Macedonia), UEFA Playoff Team 3 (Turkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo or Romania), UEFA Playoff Team 4 (Ukraine, Poland, Albania or Sweden), IC Playoff Team 1 (DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica), IC Playoff Team 2* (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname)
* = Cannot share a group with Australia
WHERE WILL EACH GROUP PLAY ITS GAMES?
Group A (Mexico): Mexico City x2, Guadalajara x2, Monterrey, Atlanta
Group B (Canada): Vancouver x2, Toronto, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle
Group C: Boston x2, New York x2, Atlanta, Miami
Group D (USA): Los Angeles x2, San Francisco x2, Vancouver, Seattle
Group E: Philadelphia x2, New York, Toronto, Houston, Kansas City
Group F: Monterrey x2, Dallas x2, Houston, Kansas City
Group G: Seattle x2, Vancouver x2, Los Angeles x2
Group H: Atlanta x2, Miami x2, Houston, Guadalajara
Group I: Boston x2, New York x2, Philadelphia, Toronto
Group J: Kansas City x2, Dallas x2, San Francisco x2
Group K: Houston x2, Mexico City, Guadalajara, Atlanta, Miami
Group L: Toronto x2, Dallas, Boston, Philadelphia, New York
WHO DO THE WINNERS FROM EACH GROUP PLAY IN THE KNOCKOUTS?
All dates Australian time
Group A
Winner vs Third Placer from Group C/E/F/H/I – July 1, Mexico City
Runner-Up vs Group B Runner-Up – June 29, Los Angeles
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group E/G – June 30, Boston or July 2, Seattle
Group B
Winner vs Third Placer from Group E/F/G/I/J – July 3, Vancouver
Runner-Up vs Group A Runner-Up – June 29, Los Angeles
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group D/E – June 30, Boston or July 2, San Francisco
Group C
Winner vs Group F Runner-Up – June 30, Houston
Runner-Up vs Winner Group F – June 30, Monterrey
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group A/E/I
Group D
Winner vs Third Placer from Group B/E/F/I/J – July 2, San Francisco
Runner-Up vs Group G Runner-Up – July 4, Dallas
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group E/I/K
Group E
Winner vs Third Placer from Group A/B/C/D/F – June 30, Boston
Runner-Up vs Group I Runner-Up – July 1, Dallas
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group A/B/D/G/K/L
Group F
Winner vs Group C Runner-Up – June 30, Monterrey
Runner-Up vs Winner Group C – June 30, Houston
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group A/B/D/E/I
Group G
Winner vs Third Placer from Group A/E/H/I/J – July 2, Seattle
Runner-Up vs Group D Runner-Up – July 4, Dallas
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group B/I – July 3, Vancouver or July 1, New York
Group H
Winner vs Group J Runner-Up – July 3, Los Angeles
Runner-Up vs Winner Group J – July 4, Miami
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group A/G/I/L
Group I
Winner vs Third Placer from Group C/D/F/G/H – July 1, New York
Runner-Up vs Group E Runner-Up – July 1, Dallas
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group A/B/D/G/K/L
Group J
Winner vs Group H Runner-Up – July 4, Miami
Runner-Up vs Group H Winner – July 3, Los Angeles
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group B/D/G/K/L
Group K
Winner vs Third Placer from Group D/E/I/J/L – July 4, Kansas City
Runner-Up vs Group L Runner-Up – July 3, Toronto
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group L – July 2, Atlanta
Group L
Winner vs Third Placer from Group E/H/I/J/K – July 2, Atlanta
Runner-Up vs Group K Runner-Up – July 3, Toronto
Potential Third Placer vs Winner from Group K – July 4, Kansas City
Group Winner, Runner-Up plus eight best-ranked Third Place finishers all advance
Specific opponents for best Third Place finishers will be determined after the final matchday, based on which groups they emerge from
2026 FIFA WORLD CUP SCHEDULE
All dates Australian time, times TBA the day after the draw
Match start times are unknown but based on the Club World Cup, a reasonable guess would be timeslots of 2am/5am/8am/11am AEST. Matches will be arranged on each day based on suitability for home TV audiences
Friday, 12 June 2026
Match 1 – Group A (Mexico #1) – Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match 2 – Group A – Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Saturday, 13 June 2026
Match 3 – Group B (Canada #1) – BMO Field, Toronto
Match 4 – Group D (USA #1) – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Sunday, 14 June 2026
Match 5 – Group C – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Match 6 – Group D – BC Place, Vancouver
Match 7 – Group C – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 8 – Group B – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Monday, 15 June 2026
Match 9 – Group E – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 10 – Group E – NRG Stadium, Houston
Match 11 – Group F – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 12 – Group F – Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Tuesday, 16 June 2026
Match 13 – Group H – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 14 – Group H – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 15 – Group G – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match 16 – Group G – Lumen Field, Seattle
Wednesday, 17 June 2026
Match 17 – Group I – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 18 – Group I – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Match 19 – Group J – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Match 20 – Group J – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Thursday, 18 June 2026
Match 21 – Group L – BMO Field, Toronto
Match 22 – Group L – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 23 – Group K – NRG Stadium, Houston
Match 24 – Group K – Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Friday, 19 June 2026
Match 25 – Group A – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 26 – Group B – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match 27 – Group B – (Canada #2) – BC Place, Vancouver
Match 28 – Group A – (Mexico #2) – Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Saturday, 20 June 2026
Match 29 – Group C – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 30 – Group C – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Match 31 – Group D – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Match 32 – Group D (USA #2) – Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday, 21 June 2026
Match 33 – Group E – BMO Field, Toronto
Match 34 – Group E – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Match 35 – Group F – NRG Stadium, Houston
Match 36 – Group F – Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Monday, 22 June 2026
Match 37 – Group H – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 38 – Group H – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 39 – Group G – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match 40 – Group G – BC Place, Vancouver
Tuesday, 23 June 2026
Match 41 – Group I – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 42 – Group I – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 43 – Group J – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 44 – Group J – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Wednesday, 24 June 2026
Match 45 – Group L – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Match 46 – Group L – BMO Field, Toronto
Match 47 – Group K – NRG Stadium, Houston
Match 48 – Group K – Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Thursday, 25 June 2026
Match 49 – Group C – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 50 – Group C – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 51 – Group B – (Canada #3) – BC Place, Vancouver
Match 52 – Group B – Lumen Field, Seattle
Match 53 – Group A – (Mexico #3) – Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match 54 – Group A – Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Friday, 26 June 2026
Match 55 – Group E – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 56 – Group E – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 57 – Group F – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 58 – Group F – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Match 59 – Group D – (USA #3) – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match 60 – Group D – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Saturday, 27 June 2026
Match 61 – Group I – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Match 62 – Group I – BMO Field, Toronto
Match 63 – Group G – Lumen Field, Seattle
Match 64 – Group G – BC Place, Vancouver
Match 65 – Group H – NRG Stadium, Houston
Match 66 – Group H – Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Sunday, 28 June 2026
Match 67 – Group L – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 68 – Group L – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 69 – Group J – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Match 70 – Group J – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 71 – Group K – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 72 – Group K – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
ROUND OF 32
Monday, 29 June 2026
Match 73 – Runner-Up Group A vs Runner-Up Group B – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Tuesday, 30 June 2026
Match 74 – Winner Group E vs Third-Place Group A/B/C/D/F – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Match 75 – Winner Group F vs Runner-Up Group C – Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Match 76 – Winner Group C vs Runner-Up Group F – NRG Stadium, Houston
Wednesday, 1 July 2026
Match 77 – Winner Group I vs Third-Place Group C/D/F/G/H – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 78 – Runner-Up Group E vs Runner-Up Group I – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 79 – Winner Group A vs Third-Place Group C/E/F/H/I – Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Thursday, 2 July 2026
Match 80 – Winner Group L vs Third-Place Group E/H/I/J/K – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 81 – Winner Group D vs Third-Place Group B/E/F/I/J – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)
Match 82 – Winner Group G vs Third-Place Group A/E/H/I/J – Lumen Field, Seattle
Friday, 3 July 2026
Match 83 – Runner-Up Group K vs Runner-Up Group L – BMO Field, Toronto
Match 84 – Winner Group H vs Runner-Up Group J – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match 85 – Winner Group B vs Third-Place Group E/F/G/I/J – BC Place, Vancouver
Saturday, 4 July 2026
Match 86 – Winner Group J vs Runner-Up Group H – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 87 – Winner Group K vs Third-Place Group D/E/I/J/L – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Match 88 – Runner-Up Group D vs Runner-Up Group G – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
ROUND OF 16
Sunday, 5 July 2026
Match 89 – Winner Match 74 vs Winner Match 77 – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 90 – Winner Match 73 vs Winner Match 75 – NRG Stadium, Houston
Monday, 6 July 2026
Match 91 – Winner Match 76 vs Winner Match 78 – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)
Match 92 – Winner Match 79 vs Winner Match 80 – Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Tuesday, 7 July 2026
Match 93 – Winner Match 83 vs Winner March 84 – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Match 94 – Winner Match 81 vs Winner Match 82 – Lumen Field, Seattle
Wednesday, 8 July 2026
Match 95 – Winner Match 86 vs Winner Match 88 – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 96 – Winner Match 85 vs Winner Match 87 – BC Place, Vancouver
QUARTER-FINALS
Friday, 10 July 2026
Match 97 – Winner Match 89 vs Winner Match 90 – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)
Saturday, 11 July 2026
Match 98 – Winner Match 93 vs Winner Match 94 – SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Sunday, 12 July 2026
Match 99 – Winner Match 91 vs Winner Match 92 – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 100 – Winner Match 95 vs Winner Match 96 – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
SEMI-FINALS
Wednesday, 15 July 2026
Match 101 – Winner Match 97 vs Winner Match 98 – AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)
Thursday, 16 July 2026
Match 102 – Winner Match 99 vs Winner Match 100 – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
THIRD-PLACE GAME
Sunday, 19 July 2026
Match 103 – Loser Match 101 vs Loser Match 102 – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
WORLD CUP FINAL
Monday, 20 July 2026
Match 104 – Winner Match 101 vs Winner Match 102 – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)