Three brutal decisions. That’s all Tony Popovic has left before he’ll name his final squad for next month’s FIFA World Cup in North America.
Almost by stealth, the squad has arrived at something resembling its final form.
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Over the past three weeks, batches of players have been told to report for duty at a training camp in Sarasota, Florida and just as it looked like the number of those in contention was set to balloon past 30, eight departed.
That left 29 remaining under the watchful eye of the Australian coaching staff with 26 places in the final squad up for grabs.
The final chance to impress is on Sunday.
The Socceroos face Mexico at the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles in one of two pre-World Cup friendly matches (the other will be against Switzerland on June 7 in San Diego) and who does and doesn’t feature could provide the final clues as to what Popovic is thinking when it comes to the remaining selection decisions.
The final 26-player squad is expected to be named the next day.
WHO IS LEFT IN CAMP WITH THE SOCCEROOS?
Given players arrived in separate waves depending on when their respective club seasons finished, it’s worth remembering exactly who is left in contention.
Goalkeepers (4)
Mat Ryan, Paul Izzo, Patrick Beach and Joe Gauci
Defenders (11)
Jacob Italiano, Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Jordan Bos, Jason Geria, Milos Degenek, Kai Trewin, Lucas Herrington, Kye Rowles and Aziz Behich
Centre midfielders (4)
Jackson Irvine, Aiden O’Neill, Paul Okon-Engstler and Cameron Devlin
Wingers/Front Third Attackers (7)
Connor Metcalfe, Ajdin Hrustic, Nestory Irankunda, Martin Boyle, Mathew Leckie, Nishan Velupillay and Awer Mabil
Strikers (3)
Mohamed Toure, Tete Yengi and Brandon Borrello
THE BALANCE OF THE SQUAD
This is the big question. It’s not just a case of pick the best 26 players. Popovic must weigh up how many players he needs in each position and what profile of player he requires as well. If two players possess almost identical skill sets then only one might make it and another with a completely different profile could be selected to provide variability. The ability to break a game open is completely different to the skill required to hold onto a 1-nil advantage in the final minutes of a game.
A simple way to look at the squad is the need for two players in every position plus three goalkeepers and three strikers. That brings you to 24 with the remaining two slots usually filled by players with utility value.
At the moment the 29-player squad has four goalkeepers. One will miss out.
The list also might look heavy on defenders – there are 11 players capable of playing in the backline – but Popovic uses a formation with three centre backs and right and left-wing backs. That means he’s likely to need 10 defenders. One might miss out.
There are four out-and-out centre midfielders but even that equation isn’t as simple as it looks because amongst the winger/front third attacker contingent are several players who can also feature in the middle of the park if required.
The same logic applies to the three strikers still in camp so they’re all not guaranteed a spot in the final squad either.
It’s likely this seemingly complicated situation will have one of two basic solutions.
One goalkeeper, one defender and one midfielder will be told their World Cup dream is over.
Or one goalkeeper, one defender and one attacker (be it from the wing/front third group or the striker group) will be delivered the same verdict.
WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SELECTED AND WHO IS BATTLING FOR THE FINAL SPOTS?
Predicting who Popovic is going to select is always fraught with danger. Since he took over the Socceroos in October 2024, barely an international window has passed that didn’t include a selection that seemed left field. That’s not a bad thing. 65 different players have been called up for international duty (not including this training camp) during his 19-month spell in charge so far. The net has been cast far and wide.
However, there are several players who, this close to the tournament, are more likely to have their names written in pen than pencil.
Whether any in pencil get a chance against Mexico, or whether it’s treated as a genuine dress rehearsal for the group stage remains to be seen.
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GOALKEEPERS
The squad must include three goalkeepers under FIFA rules.
Pen
Mat Ryan and Paul Izzo are almost certain to form two thirds of the goalkeeping unit. Ryan comes into the tournament on the back of one of the best seasons of his career. His club, Levante UD, avoided relegation from La Liga by the barest of margins partly on the back of Ryan’s weekly heroics. His campaign also included five-star displays against Real Madrid and Barcelona. Izzo, who plays for Randers in Denmark, is expected to be the number two after impressing in friendly appearances against New Zealand and Canada in September and October last year.
Pencil
This really is a flip of the coin for the last goalkeeper slot.
Joe Gauci was Popovic’s first-choice shot-stopper for the first three matches of his tenure; relegating Ryan, the captain of the side, to the bench. It was a huge statement at the time, but aside from a late cameo off the bench against New Zealand in Auckland in September last year, he hasn’t featured for the Socceroos since. The 25-year-old, who is on the books of Premier League giants Aston Villa, spent the season on loan at Port Vale, who were relegated from League One, recording 15 clean sheets from 41 appearances.
Patrick Beach’s one and only cap for the national team came in a friendly against Venezuela in Houston in November. The Socceroos lost 1-nil, but Beach could do little about the goal and made several fine saves throughout. His form for Melbourne City in the A-League has kept the 22-year-old in the conversation.
DEFENDERS
Popovic’s formation uses two wing backs and three centre backs so the squad could feature ten defenders.
Pen
Jacob Italiano only made his debut for the Socceroos in October last year and is now the clear first choice right back after Lewis Miller ruptured his Achilles while playing for Blackburn in the Championship in February.
Italiano has the engine required to get up and down the right flank relentlessly as does Jordy Bos at left back, and Alessandro Circati and Cameron Burgess are almost certain to take up two of the three centre back slots.
If there’s something in between a pen and a pencil, then that’s what Harry Souttar’s name might be drawn with. The towering defender would normally be a lock for the squad but is only just back from a ruptured Achilles.
The fact the 27-year-old has been able to get through a mountain of work during the training camp and knocked out close to two full games for Leicester before the end of the season should dispel any fears about Souttar’s fitness.
A big role against Mexico could seal the deal.
Those five look like first choice options.
Pencil
This is where it gets a little tricky. There are six options for potentially five more spots.
Kai Trewin, Jason Geria and Milos Degenek can all play centre and right back.
Popovic has been impressed by Trewin recently and his ability to play in midfield as well could count heavily in his favour.
The emergence of 18-year-old Lucas Herrington has complicated matters further.
It’s likely one of Geria, Degenek or Herrington will miss out.
Kai Rowles has played centre and left back, and Aziz Behich is the perfect understudy if something happens to Bos.
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MIDFIELDERS
The Socceroos formation uses two midfielders in the middle of the park.
Popovic could take three to four players in this position.
Pen
The game against Mexico could finally reveal where Aiden O’Neill is at with his fitness although its understood he’s now training strongly after a cautious start.
O’Neill injured his ankle playing for New York City in the MLS earlier this month but looks likely to be part of a first-choice centre midfield pairing with Jackson Irvine.
Sydney FC’s Paul Okon-Engstler forced his way into calculations off the back of starring roles for the Young Socceroos at the Under 20 World and Asian Cups last year. His debut for the Socceroos followed in November.
The 21-year-old is a unique proposition and there’s not another player with his profile in the squad. Okon-Engstler is technically gifted, extremely comfortable on the ball, has a knack of finding half spaces while the side is trying to play out from the back and is an elite decision maker with a big engine.
Pencil
Cameron Devlin, fresh off final day heartbreak in Scotland where Hearts lost the title to Celtic, is the only other out-and-out midfielder in the squad.
The 27-year-old has played four times for the Socceroos, but not for over three years and never under Popovic. An incredible season for Hearts was hard to ignore when it came to a training camp call-up.
An absolute terrier in the middle of the park whose relentless work rate frustrates opposition attackers is worthy of a spot in the final 26, but it will largely depend on what Popovic decides to do with his winger/front third attacking group.
WINGER/FRONT THIRD ATTACKERS
This group of players will have the biggest influence on the shape of the squad.
Several can also play centre midfield while others are able to fill in as a striker.
Does Popovic use more players from this group to improve the versatility of the squad or instead go for those who specialise in one role?
Pen
It would be a huge shock if Connor Metcalfe, Nestory Irankunda, Ajdin Hrustic and Nishan Velupillay weren’t in the final 26.
All four are regulars and three can play dual roles.
Metcalfe can do a job on the wing, as a number 10 playmaker or deeper in midfield. Irankunda is a threat out wide and up front and Velupillay and Martin Boyle are the same.
Mathew Leckie’s name needs to be written down with the same instrument as Souttar’s. The 35-year-old seems to have put an injury riddled season with Melbourne City behind him and Popovic is a big admirer of the experience he’d bring to the group. The veteran is the most versatile member of this group, able to feature in centre midfield, out wide or up front.
Pencil
Awer Mabil made a late run at a squad spot. After an 18-month absence he was recalled for March’s friendly games against Cameroon and Curacao, featuring in both and scoring in the latter.
Mabil played 31 times for Castellon in the second division in Spain this season, scoring three goals and providing six assists.
Still only 30, he can play on either flank or as a forward.
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STRIKERS
Pen
Mohamed Toure appears a lock on the back of a remarkable run of 10 goals in 12 games following a mid-season switch to Championship side Norwich.
That form has made him an instant hero for the Canaries who also play in green and gold.
Pencil
Tete Yengi hasn’t quite come from nowhere but if this was a race he would’ve been last at the turn.
The younger brother of fellow Socceroo Kusini, who might’ve been in camp instead if not for a torn thigh muscle suffered in March, Tete has never played for the Socceroos before.
At two metres tall, he has been playing regularly for Machida Zelvia in Japan but was only called into the squad on Tuesday.
That gave him less than a week to impress the coaching staff.
Brandon Borrello was seemingly out of contention having been left out of every squad since the middle of last year (he was unavailable for the November window through injury.)
A season below his usual standards for the Western Sydney Wanderers looked like it would hurt his cause as well.
At his best he’s another who has a unique profile that Popovic doesn’t have at his disposal elsewhere in the squad.
Will that be enough?
WHO IS INJURED BUT WOULD’VE BEEN IN THE SQUAD?
Sadly, the squad won’t contain three players who would’ve been handy.
Riley McGree injured his hamstring playing for Middlesbrough in the Championship promotion play-off final loss to Hull at the weekend.
Patrick Yazbek hurt his quad in the warmup ahead of Nashville’s CONCACAF Champions Cup semi-final second leg against Tigres in early May. Barring a miracle, it seems that has ended what looked like a certain World Cup squad call up.
Lewis Miller ruptured his Achilles playing for Blackburn in the Championship in February.
In an ideal world, Popovic would’ve been able to call on Miller at right back. Now, it’s the one area of the squad lacking depth.
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WHY IS THE MEXICO FRIENDLY IMPORTANT?
Over 70,000 tickets have been sold to Sunday’s friendly against Mexico at the famous Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Most, if not all those supporters, will be hoping the Socceroos lose.
It will be a cauldron like atmosphere at a stadium that hosted the 1994 men’s FIFA World Cup final and the 1999 women’s FIFA World Cup decider.
The Mexico fans, as co-hosts of the tournament with the USA and Canada, will have high expectations of their team.
What better way to see how prepared the Socceroos are for the tournament, especially with a clash with another of the co-hosts, USA, looming in Seattle in just over three weeks’ time.
WHO DO THE SOCCEROOS PLAY AT THE WORLD CUP?
The Socceroos are in Group D alongside Turkiye, USA and Paraguay.
They’ll play Turkiye first up in Vancouver on June 14 before a date with the US in Seattle on June 20.
A clash with Paraguay is the final group stage assignment in Santa Clara, California on June 26.
Australia will progress to the Round of 32 if they finish first or second in the group, or are one of the eight best third-placed teams from the 12 groups.