Two of the most determined squads in the tournament face off in the first semifinal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup on Tuesday when Argentina battles Croatia in Doha, Qatar. Lionel Messi has designs on winning the sport’s biggest prize in what is expected to be his final chance for Argentina. To get a chance to play for it, first La Albiceleste have to get past 2018 World Cup runner-up Croatia. Both teams advanced through penalty shootouts in Friday’s quarterfinals. Argentina allowed an equalizer to the Netherlands deep into second-half injury time, and it ended 2-2. Croatia knocked off pre-tournament favorite Brazil after a 1-1 draw, with both teams scoring their goals in extra time.
Kickoff Tuesday at Lusail Stadium is set for 2 p.m. ET. Argentina are -125 favorites (risk $125 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Argentina vs. Croatia odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Croatia are +370 underdogs, a draw is priced at +240 and the over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. Before locking in any Croatia vs. Argentina picks, you need to see the World Cup predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven soccer model.
The SportsLine soccer simulation model evaluates a team’s offensive and defensive capabilities based on the game situation. Then, it assigns a grade using an expected payout-to-probability ratio. The model was accurate on 56% of all picks during the Champions League group stage and returned more than $1,000 to $100 bettors on its A+ picks. It also enters the World Cup semifinals on a 33-15-4 run on spread picks, returning more than $1,400 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has dialed in on Argentina vs. Croatia and just revealed its 2022 World Cup picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model’s soccer picks. Here are the World Cup 2022 odds and trends for Croatia vs. Argentina:
- Argentina vs. Croatia spread: Argentina -0.5 (-125)
- Argentina vs. Croatia over/under: 2.5 goals
- Argentina vs. Croatia money line: Argentina -125, Croatia +370, Draw +240
- Argentina: They have a 9-4 edge in goals in the five matches
- Croatia: They have outscored their opponents 6-3 in Qatar
- Argentina vs. Croatia picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Argentina vs. Croatia
Why you should back Argentina
La Albiceleste have scored two goals in all four games since their stunning 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia to open the World Cup. They looked set to beat the Dutch in regulation before yielding a goal on a free kick in the 101st minute. Argentina had a 14-6 edge in shots, 6-2 on net. Messi has scored in four of the five games, including a penalty on Friday, and he has 14 goals in the team’s past nine in all competitions. The seven-time Ballon d’Or winner is second all-time in goals behind Cristiano Ronaldo and is the top scorer in Argentina’s history with 95 goals.
Messi also has made more appearances than any other Argentine player (170), and he has plenty of young talent surrounding him. Midfielder Alexis Mac Allister, 23, has emerged as a force in midfield, and Julian Alvarez, 22, has scored two goals alongside Messi. Argentina have put 32 shots on target in their five matches in Qatar, and Croatia have allowed 18 on net over their past three games while putting just nine on frame.
Why you should back Croatia
The Checkered Ones showed their grit once again on Friday as they forced extra time for the seventh time in the past eight knockout-round matches at major tournaments. They are on an 11-game unbeaten run (6-5-0) and have allowed just three goals in their five World Cup matches. Croatia hammered Argentina 3-0 in their group-stage match at the 2018 World Cup, the last meeting between the teams. Luka Modric scored one of the goals, and the 37-year-old remains a critical cog for this team. He has a Croatia-record 160 caps and has 23 goals (fifth).
Goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic’s confidence has been building with each match, and he was bombarded by 11 shots on net against Brazil but stood tall. He allowed three goals on eight penalty shots in the shootout victories against Japan and Brazil. Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic play alongside Modric in a unit that should provide a great midfield battle with the Argentines. Six Croatia players have at least 75 caps and have tons of experience on this stage.
How to make Croatia vs. Argentina picks
The model has broken down Tuesday’s Croatia vs. Argentina semifinal match from every angle, and it is leaning Over on the goal total. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see those picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Argentina vs. Croatia on Tuesday? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Croatia vs. Argentina money line to back, all from the model up more than $1,400 on its World Cup spread picks, and find out.