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The time is now for the Socceroos as Australia finalises its preparations for its crucial final World Cup group game against Paraguay on Friday in Santa Clara, California.
The equation is simple for Tony Popovic’s team: win, or draw, and you are in.
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Three points or one point will secure second place in Group D.
A loss and things get a lot more complicated.
This World Cup’s new 48-team format has created the scenario where the eight best third place finishers from the 12 groups advance to the Round of 32.
The stress of whether or not they fall into that eight is something the Socceroos will be desperate to avoid.
How the clash with Paraguay plays out has many other permeations, however.
Popovic’s legacy will in part be decided by the decisions he makes after nailing his selection calls against Türkiye before fluffing his lines against the USA.
The question on every Australians lips is: who makes the starting XI?
It feels like Popovic might throw another spanner in the works.
If he puts his faith in one of the rising stars at the heart of that starting debate, another good performance could force the hand of one of Europe’s biggest clubs.
While Australia’s history in these do-or-die World Cup games could instil confidence in the nation.
Scroll down for the biggest talking points ahead of Australia’s World Cup clash with Paraguay!
GOAL OF THE TOURNAMENT?! Haiti stun | 00:27
LEGACY ON THE LINE FOR POPA
Crunch time has arrived for Tony Popovic.
The Socceroos boss is going nowhere regardless of what happens against Paraguay and hopefully beyond in this World Cup.
Popovic signed a contract extension through to the end of next year’s Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia before this World Cup campaign began in North America.
Football Australia clearly believes in their man and in the aftermath of Australia’s 2-0 win against Türkiye in Vancouver, it was clear to see why.
Popovic rolled the dice with by making big calls in starting youngsters Patrick Beach and Paul Okon-Engstler instead of captain Mat Ryan and vice-captain Jackson Irvine.
Australians love a gambler and often praise rolls of the dice that come up with the numbers we were after.
Especially, when we are the underdog.
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Australians rejoiced earlier this year when Cooper Woods, Josie Baff and Jakara Anthony won Winter Olympic gold in sports athletes from our sun-soaked country have no right to beat Europeans in.
The nation is swept with the same craze during the Summer Olympics and, of course, during the FIFA World Cup.
We love our own who are willing to take on the world.
They may not always get it right like when Popovic decided to bench Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe against the USA.
But that willingness to try something different and try to stun opponents is what has held Popovic in good stead to this point.
There is method to his madness.
Any player or staff member that has worked under Popovic says that his squads are incredibly well-drilled and he leaves no stone unturned in his preparation.
His Socceroos assistant Hayden Foxe recently described him as “part machine”, while Popovic’s 2006 World Cup teammate Vince Grella said this is what he was made to do.
“The French say physique du role [which roughly translates to looking the part],” Grella told the Sydney Morning Herald before the World Cup began.
“It was like printed on his chest before he even became a coach. He has a lot of the coaching or managerial characteristics. So I’m not surprised about the job he does, because I know the way he works day to day.
“The way he sets up the football operations in any organisation where he goes … his attention to detail is second to none. He’s unbelievable.”
Now, Popovic has the chance to have other big monikers attached to his name.
Guus Hiddink and Graham Arnold’s names come up in debates about the greatest Socceroos manager of all time.
Popovic would enter the conversation if he becomes the third boss to take the Socceroos to the knockouts.
He may even usurp them if he can become the first to win a knockout match at the World Cup.
More success in this campaign and it could also act a launching pad to coaching club football in Europe.
Popovic could follow in Ange Postecoglou’s footsteps from the A-League to the national team and then to some of the biggest clubs in the world.
Grella certainly believes that is in the pipeline for Popovic.
“I’ve met a lot of coaches across the times, when I was doing the player agency work; mate, they can’t lace up his shoelaces,” he said.
“Popa, for me, has the potential to coach in the top leagues in Europe. He just needs to be given a chance. Is he any worse than an English coach? He’s up there, he’s in the top [echelon]. Popa is in that field.”
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WHO COMES IN FOR INJURED PAIR?
Jacob Italiano and Mathew Leckie have both already been ruled out of the crucial clash with Paraguay.
They might not be alone in making way from the Australian XI, however.
Mohamed Toure was part of a triple substitution at half time against the USA and reporters in Seattle said they saw the striker hobbling after taking his time to re-emerge from the dressing rooms.
Irankunda replaced Toure up front with Connor Metcalfe and Cristian Volpato operating on either side.
Popovic could opt for that combination again or return to the starting front three from the Türkiye victory of Metcalfe, Toure and Irankunda if Toure is fit.
Otherwise, inexperienced striker Tete Yengi, who scored against Switzerland in his lone international appearance to date, is waiting in the wings.
“Definitely Irankunda and Metcalfe, in my opinion, have got to start. I don’t think there should be any question about that,” former Manchester United and Socceroos goalkeeper Mark Bosnich said on SEN.
“If Irankunda gasses out, like people have said, then take him off. Quite simple. But you start with your best players and he’s arguably our best player.”
While fresh reports have also cast doubt over midfielder Aiden O’Neill – which could path the way for the experienced Jackson Irvine to start.
“I can reveal this: that Aiden O’Neill is basically waiting to have an ankle operation,” host James Dodd said on Stan Sport’s World Cup Daily.
“He’s had injections in his ankle, he’s in absolute bits, but he’s still running himself into the ground for this team.”
Italiano, meanwhile, arguably causes the biggest headache for Popovic, who revealed in his match eve press conference that the right wing back sustained an adductor injury in training.
There is no natural second choice right-back to replace the 24-year-old who plays in the Austrian Bundesliga.
Kai Trewin and Jason Geria, who came off the bench as one of the three half time changes against the USA, shape up as the most likely replacement.
Both are more naturally suited to play a central defensive role, however.
The same can be said of fellow squad member Milos Degenek, who featured in all four matches under Graham Arnold four years ago.
Another option is to move Degenek’s fellow three-time World Cupper Aziz Behich to the right – the veteran is stuck behind Jordy Bos in the left wing back pecking order.
“I know maybe in the past he has put Trewin out on the right-hand side,” former Socceroo Archie Thompson said on SEN.
“We’re not used to him there, he is more central mid. That could be an option or Jason Geria on the right.
“With speed and athleticism I would go Geria. It’s a hard one; Italiano has been fantastic in that position. That is the better option.
“It will be interesting to see if Popovic rejigs the central defensive trio and we have to remember most of the back four are on yellow cards, they have been more involved than anyone the way we sit back and defend.
“They will have that one their minds though. It will be a shame if we miss one of them if we reach the knockouts.”
Changes to be made for Paraguay clash? | 02:33
POPA’S EXPERIENCE VS YOUTH DILEMMA
In both games so far, Popovic has pulled selection shocks.
He might be about to make it a trilogy.
In his match eve press conference, the Socceroos boss remained tight lipped on selection.
“Always considering all possibilities,” he told reporters with a smile.
“Because we’ve always shown faith in every player that’s here.
“Since we’ve started this journey, every player that’s in our squad knows that he has a chance of playing and that’s no different for tomorrow.”
The shock of the tournament from an Australian perspective was Popovic’s decision to bench captain Mat Ryan in favour of 22-year-old goalkeeper Patrick Beach.
The Melbourne City shot stopper became an overnight sensation by making eight saves and keeping a clean sheet against Türkiye.
Beach was less convincing against the USA as the tournament co-hosts scored twice in the first half.
Now, the most capped Socceroo ever, Mark Schwarzer believes it is time for change.
“We’re talking about a World Cup, we’re talking about international level and experience and so forth, so that’s why I think it’s harsh on Patrick Beach but I would go for the experience,” the former Premier League goalkeeper said on the ABC Sport Daily Podcast.
“I would put Matty Ryan back in goal; leader, captain, incredible amount of experience and I think he’ll be completely up for the game and ready to perform at the level.
“And I think the level you need right now is about the cool head, the experience in like a final. It’s a final within the World Cup finals for us.”
The experience versus youth debate has been a key feature of the Socceroos squad this World Cup.
Of the starting XI against Turkiye, only skipper Harry Souttar played in Qatar four years ago.
Seven of the starting line-up that day were aged 23 or under.
It is no secret that Popovic has an exciting young core to work with, but must balance that with putting experienced players around them.
That is why he first entrusted Mathew Leckie in the squad and then decided to start the 35-year-old against the USA.
The need for a few wiser heads also led Popovic to choose Cameron Burgess over Lucas Herrington so far this tournament.
Herrington came into this World Cup having started every game since he debuted in the March international window.
The 18-year-old’s rise has been meteoric since joining MLS side Colorado Rapids from Brisbane Roar in January.
He has even had European giants Barcelona and Liverpool keeping an eye on him with the La Liga champions even making an offer, reportedly of around €10 million, that was rejected.
When Burgess was hooked at half time against the USA after conceding an own goal for the hosts’ opener, Popovic called on Jason Geria rather than Herrington.
Former Manchester United and Socceroos goalkeeper Bosnich believes it is time to show faith in the teenage rising star.
“Whether you want to bring in Herrington at the back, that’ll be a decision that’s a toss-up. I would lean towards perhaps yes,” he said on SEN.
“No disrespect to Burgess. It maybe needs a little bit of refreshing there. He did nothing wrong as well.”
Leckie in doubt for Paraguay clash | 02:34
COULD BAYERN BUY BACK IRANKUNDA?
Nestory Irankunda left Bayern Munich so that he would make it to this World Cup.
But the 20-year-old could find his way back to Bavaria after putting his name up in lights for the Socceroos.
Irankunda was bought by Bayern from Adelaide United for a reported fee of $5.5 million – an A-League transfer record – in late 2023 and he joined the German giants the following year.
After time spent with Bayern’s reserves and a brief loan spell in Switzerland, Irankunda decided last year that he leave behind training with the likes of England captain Harry Kane for more guaranteed minutes.
That was when English Championship club Watford came knocking.
The Hornets are now looking to cash in on Irankunda after an eye-catching season in the English second tier and a blistering World Cup debut.
Watford are reportedly looking for a fee of around €20 million ($32.94m) for the Australian winger.
Premier League clubs Everton and Crystal Palace as well recently relegated West Ham have been named in reports as clubs interested in Irankunda if he wishes to stay in England.
While Italy’s Fiorentina and Bundesliga club Bayer Leverkusen may also acquire his services.
Watford are after as much money as possible because their purchase of Irankunda contained a 50 per cent sell-on clause – meaning Bayern get half of any transfer fee.
There is also another clause in his contract that has raised eyebrows, however.
Bayern boast a buy-back option estimated between €4.5 and €5 million.
That means that if Irankunda’s star continues to rise, they could reclaim the Australian to play under former Manchester City star Vincent Kompany.
It is probably unlikely as Bayern already boast more established stars in Serge Gnabry, Luis Diaz and Michael Olise alongside Kane in attack.
But it certainly cannot be ruled out – especially if they believe they could buy-back Irankunda to then sell him for a higher price than the 50 per cent share they would get if Watford do the deal.
SOCCEROOS HISTORY OF FINAL GROUP GAME SUCCESS
Back to the Paraguay game and for a nation that has only made it to the World Cup knockouts twice, the Socceroos have a sneakily good record in do-or-die, final group games.
In 2006, Australia’s golden generation went to the Round of 16 for the first time by drawing 2-2 with Croatia in one of the most wild games in World Cup memory.
Four years later, the Socceroos defeated Serbia 2-1 to get the result they needed, but Ghana advanced on goal difference as Pim Verbeek’s side paid the price for being thrashed 4-0 by Germany in the opening game.
The next time Australia faced a live final group game was in Russia in 2018.
The Socceroos needed to defeat Peru and for Denmark to lose to France.
Neither result happened as Australia lost 2-0 and the two European nations played out a scoreless draw.
But redemption occurred in Qatar at the last World Cup.
Mathew Leckie’s goal gave Graham Arnold’s men a 1-0 win against the Danish to advance to the knockouts.
Overall, achieving the desired result on three of the four occasions is very impressive.
There is something in the Australian spirit that relishes having our backs against the wall.
Hopefully, Tony Popovic can make it four of five against Paraguay.
